0652 GMT - Bitcoin stays strong after reaching a two-week high overnight. Last week's weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report prompted markets to scale back expectations for interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve, providing some relief to liquidity-related assets including cryptocurrencies, Capital.com's Monte Safieddine says in a note. The Fed releases the minutes of its last meeting on Wednesday which will be closely monitored for any signals on the trajectory of interest rates. Bitcoin rises 0.5% to $63,026, having reached a high of $63,926 overnight, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0650 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields edge lower, tracking their U.S. Treasury peers. "There is relatively little in the way of new impulses for the eurozone this week," Metzler analysts say in a note. German factory orders this morning, industrial production on Tuesday and foreign trade data Thursday, as well as eurozone producer prices and retail sales "should provide valuable insight regarding expected GDP growth for the second quarter," they say. While the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile and short-term supply is difficult to predict, structural oil supply appears set to rise further in the future, they say after OPEC+ decided to increase production. The 10-year German Bund yield falls 0.8 basis points to 2.923%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0649 GMT - A pullback in oil prices should be positive for corporate credit, according to Jefferies's Mohit Kumar. Credit spreads are too tight but outright yields are still attractive, the global economist writes in a note. "We remain positive on credit on a total yield basis," he says. More broadly, Jefferies remains positive on risky assets. "No need for central banks to hike rates (our view), positive seasonality in July, not so crowded positions and ample cash in the system should all favor risky assets over the coming weeks," Kumar says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0634 GMT - The dollar edges higher as it recovers from recent falls driven by a trimming of U.S. interest rate rise expectations. The reassessment of rate expectations followed last Thursday's weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls along with comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh last Wednesday that inflationary risks had eased. However, LSEG data show the market is still expecting the Fed to raise rates by year-end. The attention now turns to the Fed's meeting minutes on Wednesday for further clues on the policy path. The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 101.035. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0631 GMT - The 'prices paid' component of the U.S. ISM services will get particular attention and could eventually support the short-end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, Metzler's Uwe Hohmann and Yannik Mosbach say in a note. This component is expected to remain at an elevated level, albeit lower than in the previous month, the analysts say ahead of the release for June. "Should there be a downside surprise here--as was the case with the manufacturing sector--it would further fuel recent doubts regarding Fed rate hikes and provide support for the short end of the Treasury curve," they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0629 GMT - Singapore's private residential sales price growth this year is likely to end up around the midpoint of OCBC's estimated range of 1% to 3%, compared with 2025's 3.3% gain, says OCBC Group Research's Andy Wong in a media briefing. He notes 2Q flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority indicate slower growth in private home sales prices versus 1Q. The city-state's public housing resale prices have also fallen for the second consecutive quarter, reversing the upward trajectory of roughly the last seven years, he says. The softening in the resale market likely points to weakness for the broader residential market, including private housing's price growth, he says. He expects 2026 private new home sales of between 8,000 to 9,500, falling 12%-26% from 2025 due to fewer residential launches.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0624 GMT - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield could hit 3% by the end of the year as the economy stays on a firm growth trajectory, says Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management strategist Masahiro Ichikawa. He also expects further upside for Japanese equities if the government's massive investment plan promotes more capital spending in the private sector. "Regarding fiscal policy, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has expressed her intention to secure market trust, so the probability of it becoming undisciplined seems low," he adds. The 10-year JGB yield was last up 6 bps at 2.830%. The Nikkei Stock Average was down 0.2% at 69615.32. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0606 GMT - The downward correction in European Central Bank interest-rate expectations seems to be running out of steam for now, Commerzbank's Rainer Guntermann says in a note. Official guidance for July is ambiguous, while the ECB is not taking a further rate hike off the table, the rates strategist says. For front-end eurozone bond yields to move lower, a larger drop in oil prices seems needed, he says. Money markets currently price in 17 basis points of ECB rate hike for September and 25 basis points by year-end, according to LSEG data. "More color is in store in the coming days with a long list of ECB speakers and the minutes from the June meeting," Guntermann says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0558 GMT - The dollar is likely to test higher against the yen despite speculation over potential Japanese government foreign-exchange intervention, Daiwa Securities strategists say. "Market participants will likely keep scrutinizing verbal intervention keywords like 'appropriate action' or 'decisive steps' to gauge how close authorities are to taking action," they say. "Ultimately, however, the market is expected to keep pushing the upside step-by-step until an actual currency intervention is finally triggered," they add. The dollar was last trading at 162.02 yen.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0557 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields fall in Asian trade following last Thursday's weaker-than-expected employment data that led the markets to scale back their expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Brent oil trades marginally lower, just below $72 per barrel, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies decided to increase oil output again as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield declines 0.4 basis points to 4.126%, while the 10-year yield falls 0.6 basis points to 4.472%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0540 GMT - Softer U.S. labor data and better inflation prints have reduced the urgency around further Federal Reserve tightening, but they haven't settled whether growth is slowing in a manageable way or whether policy expectations have moved too far, BNY's Geoff Yu says in a note. "The global narrative is becoming less uniform," the senior EMEA macro strategist says. In the U.S., the question is whether the Fed can stay patient without seeing inflation risks reemerge, he says. In Europe, meanwhile, the debate is moving away from emergency inflation management and back toward growth, fiscal credibility and defense financing, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0537 GMT - Higher U.S. Treasury yields are forcing investors to reassess crowded bond exposure, BNY's Geoff Yu says in a note. However, the adjustment is not yet a broad exit from risk, the senior EMEA macro strategist says. "That distinction matters: equities, selective carry and currencies with stronger domestic anchors can still attract capital even as duration remains vulnerable," he says. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield last trades at 4.472%, down 0.6 basis points, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)