Brazil's government raised its projection on Friday for the country's full-year trade balance, forecasting a surplus of $90 billion, up about 25% from the previous projection released in April.
The upward revision came amid a higher projection for the country's exports in 2026, now estimated at $394.4 billion, an all-time high, according to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services.
Imports were projected to hit $304.4 billion this year, also larger than the previous forecast and a record high.
If confirmed, the 2026 projection would represent about a 32% increase from last year's trade balance, when reached a surplus of $68.1 billion.
H1 EXPORTS BOOST TRADE SURPLUS
Government data also showed that the country's trade surplus reached $42.4 billion in the first half of the year, up some 40% from the same period in 2025, as a rise in export revenue more than offset an increase in imports.
January-June exports rose 11.5% from the same period a year earlier to $184.8 billion, while imports increased 5.1% to $142.4 billion.
The rise in export revenue came amid a jump in Brazil's shipment collections of soybeans (+14.9%), crude oil (+28.9%) and beef (+38.5%) during the first half of the year, with all favoured by both higher prices and volumes.
The value of imports, for its part, rose due to higher imports of oil-related fuels (+19.4%), passenger vehicles (+89.1%) and fertilizers (+9.8%).
In June alone, Brazil's trade surplus reached $9.8 billion, slightly narrower than the $9.9 billion surplus economists polled by Reuters expected for the month but well above the $5.9 billion surplus reported in June 2025.