1542 ET - Treasury yields change little to start a week light in economic indicators, and amid a lull in war-related headlines. Oil prices decline on expected increased supply, likely easing inflation fears. Fed fund futures keep pricing at least one Fed rate hike this year. The ISM purchasing managers index for services providers was slightly lower in June, at 54, roughly in line with WSJ consensus and still in expansionary territory. Investors are likely to scrutinize Fed minutes Wednesday to better understand the central bank's latest hawkish tilt. The 10-year yield rises 0.002 percentage point to 4.479%. The two-year falls 0.006 p.p. to 4.124%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1536 ET - The strength of semiconductor stocks during the second quarter may make it challenging for companies to impress the market with their second quarter financial results, Goldman Sachs analysts say in a note. "We see upside to estimates across most sub-sectors of the semiconductor ecosystem heading into 2Q earnings," the analysts write. "But following dramatic outperformance for the sector in 2Q (SOX up 88% vs. SPX up 14%), we see a more challenging trading setup ahead of earnings." Still, the analysts see upside for companies that serve artificial-intelligence hyperscalers, the industrial and defense sectors, and memory technology manufacturers. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
Formula 1's next phase of growth will likely come from further monetizing its races, rather than adding more of them, TD Cowen analysts say in a note after meeting with executives from F1 and its parent company, Liberty Media. F1 sees consumer products and licensing as a big long-term opportunity, with plans to move toward broader brand partnerships, the analysts say. F1 is also working to have a more sophisticated hospitality model, focusing on product segmentation, premium experiences, dynamic pricing and higher utilization of its existing assets, the analysts say. Management also sees opportunities to drive higher spend per guests through differentiated offerings at key races and year-round venues such as Las Vegas, they say.
(kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)
1520 ET - Formula One's next phase of growth will likely come from further monetizing its races, rather than adding more of them, TD Cowen analysts say in a note after meeting with executives from F1 and its parent company Liberty Media. F1 sees consumer products and licensing as a big long-term opportunity, with plans to move toward broader brand partnerships, the analysts say. F1 is also working to have a more sophisticated hospitality model, focusing on product segmentation, premium experiences, dynamic pricing and higher utilization of its existing assets, the analysts say. Management also sees opportunities to drive higher spend per guests through differentiated offerings at key races and year-round venues like Las Vegas, they say. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)
1506 ET - The World Cup is boosting spending in host cities as the tournament's knockout round continues, according to a Bank of America Institute report. Consumer spending in host cities is up 5.4% year over year over during the tournament's full group stage, according to the report, which cites credit and debit card spending data. Tourists visiting host cities for matches have been driving that growth, with their spending up 17%, the report says. During the group stage, the U.S. team played in Seattle and Los Angeles, where overall spending rose 5% and 6.8%, respectively, during the first stage of the tournament, the report says. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)
1321 ET - Lower crude oil and diesel prices offer "a slight reprieve" for freight markets, although the scale of the energy shock will take months or more to unwind as maritime insurers wait for a durable peace before reducing risk premiums, Middle East production restarts, and infrastructure is repaired, says Matt Muenster of transportation technology firm Breakthrough. "U.S. diesel market tightness and strong refinery margins will temper a greater diesel price decline in the short- to medium-term," he adds. "Low inventories going into peak freight season may support a higher floor for diesel prices." Nymex diesel is up 3.3% at $3.2874 a gallon, compared with $2.6709 at the end of February and the March 20 settlement high of $4.60. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1318 ET - Even though JetBlue is one of the biggest beneficiaries of Spirit's recent demise, its stock has limited upside due to the $6.12 conversion price of its convertible debt, Raymond James analysts Savanthi Syth and Carter Eades say in a research note. And while there aren't liquidity concerns at JetBlue this year, it would be prudent for the company to address its capital structure with a Chapter 11 restructuring, they say. While that would be a bitter pill for current shareholders, it would be smart given the actions management has taken in recent years, including the recent build out of Fort Lauderdale as the company's first true hub, the analysts say. They downgrade the stock to underperform from market perform. JetBlue is up 1% to $6.08.(dean.seal@wsj.com)
1245 ET - The findings from the Bank of Canada's 2Q business-outlook survey don't reflect the current economic backdrop, says Desjardins Group economist Tiago Figueiredo. The survey showed a sharp increase in inflation expectations among Canadian firms. However, the data were collected in May, or before the US and Iran struck a deal to restart oil-tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. "Unfortunately, the majority of responses may look very different today than when the survey was conducted," he says. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1242 ET - The results from the Bank of Canada's 2Q business-outlook survey underscore the dilemma that policymakers faced at the height of the US-Iran conflict, says Robert Kavcic, economist at BMO Capital Markets. The survey results capture responses from May, and indicated that inflation expectations shot upward amid higher energy prices. "Lower oil prices should help dial these concerns back in 3Q," Kavcic says, adding a survey gauge of business activity still pointed to an economy stuck below potential. Kavcic says the firm still expects no change in the BOC main interest rate in 2026. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1237 ET - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller says that communicating the Fed's reaction function is important. "Be clear about what your objectives are---how are you going to respond to the data," Waller says while taking questions at a conference in Rome, Italy. "You reduce uncertainty in the markets and for households," he adds. Waller's comments follow Fed chairman Kevin Warsh's previous statement after June's meeting that markets perform best when they react to incoming data--and less efficiently when they ask how the Fed will react to that incoming information.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1214 ET - The World Cup is back with more vigor than last time around, which should provide a solid boost to the resale-ticketing industry, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. Interest levels already passed peak levels from the 2022 World Cup by roughly 50% earlier this year, and at the peak in June, interest was over twice the last tournament, the analysts say in a note, citing Google Trends data. That interest seems to be driving ticketing-app downloads, primarily at StubHub, they say. A continuation of those trends, and a US team that remains in the tournament, could support continued robust attendance levels and high ticket prices, which are both positives for resale platforms, the analysts say. They continue to see the tournament driving a 2% to 4% tailwind to growth across StubHub and Vivid Seats, or a 7% to 9% tailwind in their bull case, they say. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)
1111 ET - Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller says that forward guidance could be a useful tool for the central bank, but could also impair policy transmission if the guidance is too strong or rigid. "Forward guidance is also problematic when there are potentially different economic scenarios confronting policymakers, each with a significant probability of occurring and requiring different policy paths," Waller says at a conference in Rome, Italy. "One cannot simply take a weighted average of these scenarios as the 'base case' and use it to give forward guidance," according to published text of his remarks. Waller says restrictive guidance tied the hands of the FOMC in 2021 and unnecessarily delayed rate increases. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)