Bernstein Says the Street Is Badly Wrong on ASML

ASML Holding NASDAQ:ASML fell 0.99% in Amsterdam trading after Bernstein raised its price target to 2,300 from 1,700, maintaining an Outperform rating and lifting its target multiple to 40x earnings from 35x, which it described as one standard deviation above the historical mean.

The firm materially increased its topline forecasts following what it called an "unprecedented AI-driven expansion in both advanced logic and DRAM capacity." EUV shipment forecasts moved to 91 units in 2027 from 86 and to 113 in 2028 from 87, with EUV revenue now seen compounding at 30% annually to reach 42.7 billion by 2030, more than 30% above the street estimate. Total ASML revenue is projected at 80 billion by 2030, a 24% premium to consensus of 64 billion.

Bernstein expects memory chipmakers to lead High-NA EUV adoption ahead of logic, given DRAM's smaller die size and single-mask requirement. SK Hynix (000660) and Samsung Electronics (005930) are forecast to adopt High-NA in DRAM production in 2027, followed by Intel NASDAQ:INTC in logic in 2028, Samsung logic in 2029, and TSMC NYSE:TSM in 2030.