By Scott DiSavino
U.S. natural gas futures held steady on Monday as a bullish decline in output and an increase in flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants offset bearish forecasts for less hot weather over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery NYMEX:NG1! on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.2 cent, or 0.1%, to $3.198 per million British thermal units.
In a sign the market is not too worried about gas supplies in coming months, the premium of futures for August over September (NGQ26-U26) rose to a record high of around 11 cents per mmBtu, while the premium of futures for November over October (NGV26-X26) fell to its lowest since May 2025.
Traders use the March-April (NGH27-J27) and October-November spreads to bet on winter weather forecasts and supply and demand. March is the last month of the winter heating season when utilities pull gas out of storage, and October is the last month of the summer cooling season when utilities inject gas into storage.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, down from 110.0 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual.
They projected the amount of gas in inventories would hold around 6.4% above normal during the week ended July 3, similar to the previous week.
Even though meteorologists forecast less heat next week than this week, they said the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through July 21, which should keep the amount of gas power generators burn for air conditioning high. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 110.3 bcfd this week and next. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday before the long U.S. July 4 holiday weekend.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.1 bcfd so far in July, up from 17.4 bcfd in June but still below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
Week ended Jul 3 Forecast Week ended Jun 26 Actual Year ago Jun 26 Five-year average (2021-2025) Jun 26 | U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +52 +87 +53 +51 | U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,974 2,922 2,998 2,798 | U.S. total storage versus 5-year average +6.3% +6.4% | Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Year Prior Year Average 2025 Five-Year Average (2021-2025) | Henry Hub NYMEX:NG1! 3.19 3.20 3.30 3.62 3.79 | Title Transfer Facility (TTF) ICEENDEX:TFM1! 14.99 15.06 9.98 11.94 18.51 | Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) 16.08 16.02 12.53 12.24 18.12 | LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year Norm 30-Year Norm | U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) 2 2 4 3 4 | U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) 234 245 217 209 197 | U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) 236 247 221 211 203 | LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Last Year Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month | U.S. Supply (bcfd) | U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 110.5 109.1 109.3 106.2 101.4 | U.S. Imports from Canada 7.2 7.1 6.9 N/A 8.2 | U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | Total U.S. Supply 117.7 116.2 116.2 N/A 109.6 | U.S. Demand (bcfd) | U.S. Exports to Canada 2.2 2.3 2.2 N/A 2.3 | U.S. Exports to Mexico 7.2 7.0 7.2 N/A 6.6 | U.S. LNG Export Feedgas 17.8 17.7 17.9 15.8 11.0 | U.S. Commercial 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.7 | U.S. Residential 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 | U.S. Power Plant 41.1 46.1 45.7 46.4 46.1 | U.S. Industrial 21.7 21.6 21.6 22.2 21.8 | U.S. Plant Fuel 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 | U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.2 | U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 | Total U.S. Consumption 78.3 83.3 82.9 84.1 84.9 | Total U.S. Demand 105.5 110.3 110.3 N/A 104.8 | N/A = Not Available | U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast 2025 % of Normal Actual 2024 % of Normal Actual 2023 % of Normal Actual | Apr-Sep 83 84 76 74 83 | Jan-Jul 89 89 78 76 77 | Oct-Sep 93 94 80 77 76 | U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | Week ended July 10 Week ended July 3 2025 2024 2023 | Wind 7 13 11 11 10 | Solar 9 9 6 5 4 | Hydro 5 5 6 6 6 | Other 2 1 1 1 2 | Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 | Natural Gas 42 39 40 42 41 | Coal 19 17 18 16 17 | Nuclear 18 17 18 19 19 | SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | Hub Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Year Prior Year Average 2025 Five-Year Average (2021-2025) | Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) 3.34 3.38 3.20 3.52 3.72 | Transco Z6 New York (NG-CG-NY-SNL) 2.69 2.71 2.87 3.53 3.56 | PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) 1.24 1.17 3.45 3.42 5.47 | Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) 2.51 2.52 2.61 2.79 2.96 | Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL) 2.72 2.78 2.95 3.23 3.60 | Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL) 3.53 4.73 4.50 6.08 5.04 | SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) 1.89 1.93 3.70 3.60 5.71 | Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) 0.80 0.68 1.57 1.15 2.88 | AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) 0.95 0.93 0.51 1.13 2.13 | Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | Hub Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Year Prior Year Average 2025 Five-Year Average (2021-2025) | New England (E-NEPLMHP-IDX) 53.00 242.94 89.06 77.12 61.67 | PJM West (E-PJWHRTP-IX) 79.42 365.85 87.25 60.23 54.47 | Mid-Columbia (Mid C) (W-MIDCP-IDX) 38.37 13.51 52.17 44.81 68.96 | Palo Verde (W-PVP-IDX) 38.16 16.75 48.82 34.82 59.94 | South Path-15 (SP-15) (W-SP15-IDX) 17.72 3.83 33.95 28.44 53.02 |