Prediction market traders are signaling that the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) may have limited room to extend its AI-driven rally through the rest of 2026, according to a Tuesday CNBC report citing Kalshi market data.
Kalshi contracts indicate roughly even odds that the Nasdaq-100 will end 2026 above the 30,000 level, which the index first surpassed in late May. The prediction market also assigns about a 30% probability that the index will finish above 33,000, up from about 22% around 10 days ago, suggesting some investors still expect AI-related momentum to continue.
The Nasdaq-100 also carries about a 40% chance of moving above 32,000 before year-end, reflecting expectations for additional gains while signaling a more measured outlook after the sector's strong advance.
Separately, the Nasdaq-100 added SpaceX (SPCX) to the index on Tuesday as investors continued to watch whether market leadership broadens beyond large-cap technology stocks. The prediction market data suggests traders remain constructive on AI-related equities but expect future gains to be more moderate than the rally seen earlier this year.