Elon Musk’s rocket maker isn’t exactly a moon shot, at least for the time being. Could its valuation be coming down to earth?

🚀 Gravity Finally Kicks In

  • SpaceX shares closed at a fresh all-time low Monday, falling another 4.2% after a 4.5% drop in the previous session.
  • The stock is now hovering just above its , a sharp comedown for a company that briefly looked destined for orbit.
  • Since its first trade around $150, the stock has lost roughly 7%, and it's now down about 40% from its record high near $223. Turns out, even rockets occasionally need a controlled (or not so much) descent.
  • One factor behind the volatility: only about 4% of SpaceX's shares are freely tradable. A limited public float can amplify both rallies and selloffs because relatively small trading volumes can move the price dramatically.

📉 IPO Fever Meets Reality

  • SpaceX's blockbuster debut briefly pushed Elon Musk past and fueled hopes that a wave of AI and technology IPOs would soon follow. The market mood has changed considerably since then.
  • OpenAI and Anthropic have both confidentially filed IPO paperwork, but neither has committed to a launch date. Watching SpaceX struggle out of the gate likely isn't making the decision any easier.
  • Investors have become more selective as lofty valuations collide with rising geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices and renewed questions about whether the AI boom can justify its enormous price tags.

📊 Eyes Turn to Earnings

  • Last week's forced index funds to buy SpaceX shares, bringing billions of dollars of passive investment into the stock. It wasn't enough to stop the recent slide.
  • SpaceX's market value has fallen to roughly $1.9 trillion, down from a peak approaching $3 trillion. That's still an enormous valuation, even if just about all of it is forward-looking.
  • The next major catalyst arrives on August 6, when SpaceX is expected to release its first quarterly financial update as a public company.
  • Until then, traders will be left debating whether this is a bargain landing — or just the end of the launch countdown.