SpaceX ) is facing its first major test of investor appetite since its blockbuster IPO debut. The firm will report its first earnings release on Tuesday, after the market close, followed by a lock-up restriction release of around 930 million shares worth more than $100 billion.

These two events will shape trading in the stock, which has lost much of its value over the last few weeks. Since peaking at around $225 in intraday trading on June 16, the stock has plummeted over 50%, now trading around $110.

Such volatility would be notable even for a small-time Silicon Valley tech unicorn trading in low billions. For a firm that even after such a decline commands a market cap of nearly $1.5 trillion, it is staggering.

Staggered Supply

SpaceX sold 5% of its equity in June 12 IPO that raised $86.25 billion. Existing investors did not sell in the offering, leaving much of the shareholder base subject to a customized, staggered lockup plan rather than the conventional 180-day restriction.

According to the , 20% of the shares slated for release in the first 180 days can be sold two days after earnings. Further unlocks will happen after later reporting dates, including 28% after Q3 results. Meanwhile, Elon Musk and certain large investors remain restricted for a full year.

While this approach aims to avoid a single selling rush, it also risks prolonging concern about future supply. When early shareholders have substantial paper gains, the market cannot know how many intend to sell or have already hedged their exposure.

The Point of Maximum Pressure

"We believe that most of the available shares will come to market, because the existing sellers have low-cost basis and long holding periods," Nicolas Owens, a Morningstar analyst, said according to The Globe and Mail.

"It’s conceivable that a good deal of the recent slump in SpaceX stock is precisely in anticipation of the dilution from the lockup," he added.

The potential increase is unusually large because the IPO initially left less than 5% of outstanding stock available for public trading. A small float can amplify moves in either direction; expanding it may reduce volatility over time but create near-term selling pressure.

Morgan Stanley warned that the combination of results and the unlock may leave shares vulnerable to technical forces.

"We believe Max Q is analogous to what SpaceX shares are experiencing," the bank’s analysts wrote, referring to the period of maximum aerodynamic pressure during a rocket launch.

Earnings Expectations

Options markets are already signaling heightened uncertainty. Implied volatility for the week ending Aug. 7 was 196.41%, compared with an average of 73.32%, Barchart data shows.

The earnings release will also focus attention on revenue, capital spending, Starlink adoption, Starship operations and the company’s artificial-intelligence and computing ambitions. Addressing the expectations this Sunday, Jeffries Managing Director Aniket Shah the firm’s critics were "too simple-minded" and "not looking at the data."

According to Benzinga’s , the Q2 consensus revenue forecast is $6.87 billion, or -$0.16 in earnings per share.

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