Markets anticipate a generous earnings season with the growth forecast for S&P 500 companies sitting at about 25%.

📈 Futures Keep the Momentum Alive

  • US stock futures kicked off Monday in positive territory after a record-setting week on Wall Street. Dow futures added 0.1%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures led the way with a 0.9% advance.
  • The optimism comes after a . The S&P 500 has climbed about 20% over the past year and 15% last quarter, while the Nasdaq has surged more than 25% over 12 months, posting its strongest quarter in six years.
  • Futures aren't guarantees, though. They simply reflect where traders expect the market to open. By the time the opening bell rings, one headline can flip the script. That's markets doing market things.

🏦 Fed First, Earnings Next

  • Investors are balancing AI enthusiasm with a reality check. Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, due Wednesday, which could offer clues on where interest rates are headed under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
  • officially gets rolling the week of July 13, with the major US banks stepping into the spotlight first. Their results often set the tone for the weeks that follow across the broader market.
  • Analysts are expecting roughly 25% earnings growth for S&P 500 companies over the coming year. That's a bold forecast — and one that gives companies a pretty high bar to clear over the next few months.

🌏 Asia Mixed, Valuations Tested

  • Trading across Asia was mixed as investors reassessed AI-driven trades. Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 0.7%, Topix edged up 0.2%, while South Korea's volatile Kospi lost 1%.
  • The Japanese yen hovered near ¥161.50 per US dollar, not far from last week's 40-year low, keeping traders alert for any signs of official intervention in the currency market.
  • Wall Street's optimism isn't exactly cheap. The S&P 500 now trades at roughly 20 times forward earnings — meaning investors are paying 20 years' worth of expected profits for today's prices. That's above the historical average, though still below the extremes of the dot-com bubble and the post-pandemic boom.