Wednesday, July 1st, 2026

Pre-market futures begin the first trading session of the second half of calendar 2026 in the red so far. Considering myriad stresses on the global marketplace over the first half of the year, with oil supply shocks from the closing of the Strait of Hormuz and tariff costs rebalancing global trade at the top of the list, markets are doing quite well.

The Dow is +8.6% since the start of the year, the S&P 500 is +9.4%, the Nasdaq +19.3% and the small-cap Russell 2000 — usually the laggard among top indexes — leads 2026 to this point: +21.6%. The AI trade fostered market advancements with capex initiatives, but data-center buildouts and clinical-trial improvements at smaller biotechs have now become part of the narrative.

ADP Jobs Dip Below 100K in June

Private-sector payrolls from Automatic Data Processing ADP this morning posted job gains in June of +98K, below the +110K analysts were predicting and beneath the unrevised +122K ADP released a month ago. This is the first month since March we’ve been sub-100K, but at +98K we’re right in line with the trailing 4-month average. Compare that to the prior 4 months: +49K. A year ago we were in a months-long series of negative ADP jobs growth.

Services made up nearly all the jobs gains last month: +96K. Private-sector payrolls were fairly evenly split in terms of business size: small companies (sub-50 employees) +53K, medium-sized firms (between 51-499 workers) +29K and large corporations +25K. This is the second-straight month smaller businesses have outperformed on private-sector job growth.

This report was led, unsurprisingly, by Education/Healthcare at +48K, Trade/Transportation/Utilities +15K and Financial Services +14, with a big drop-off to Manufacturing at +3K and Construction and Leisure/Hospitality at +2K each. Job Stayers averaged an increase of +4.4% in pay, Job Changers saw +6.6%. This gap had narrowed somewhat in previous months but seems to be holding steady now.

In short, we’re far from the 250K+ jobs gains we were seeing from the summer of 2021 through the summer of 2023 (the “Great Reopening”), but we’ve also seen 12 consecutive months of positive private-sector jobs growth. Before that, 6 of the prior 10 months were negative.

What to Expect from the Stock Market Today

Though we may be kicking off this trading session lower, keep in mind we were in a similar place 24 hours ago. But with ongoing talks about a peace deal with Iran (Doha is hosting lower-level officials hashing out details, as per “normal” peace talks) while oil tankers continue to travel the Strait of Hormuz, and a continuing spread of the AI revolution advancing past the biggest tech names, the overall market appears to be sitting pretty.

Final S&P Manufacturing PMI is due after the opening bell this morning, and we’re looking for a number similar to the 55.7 released in the preliminary report. ISM Manufacturing for June is expected to tick down 10 basis points (bps) to 53.9% from the last print. Both of these metrics are safely above the 50 threshold which determines growth. Construction Spending for May is estimated at +0.2%, half the +0.4% reported a month ago.

Tomorrow will be the final trading day of the week, with Friday a market holiday in observance of U.S. Independence Day. Thus, “Jobs Week” concludes with an earlier-than-normal BLS Employment Situation report, where +115K jobs are expected to have been filled last month in all non-farm payrolls. Also Weekly Jobless Claims are due for release, as most Thursday mornings.

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