Gold (GLD) prices have advanced for a third straight session as weaker US jobs data reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again this year. Bullion rose as much as 1.8% to around $4,195 an ounce, following a 2.3% gain in the previous session, its strongest increase in three weeks. The latest US hiring figures showed a sharp slowdown in June, suggesting the labor market could still be facing pressure despite signs of strength in recent months.
Investors have moved quickly to adjust their rate-hike expectations. Swap markets are now pricing in only an 18% probability of a Fed hike at the July meeting, down from about one-third earlier in the week. This shift could support gold, as higher borrowing costs typically weigh on non-yielding assets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index also moved lower, slipping 0.2% after falling 0.5% in the prior session.
TD Securities' Bart Melek said lower energy prices and softer job growth suggest inflation pressures are likely to ease in the coming months. He noted that reduced Fed hike expectations likely encouraged traders to cover short-gold positions while lowering the incentive to sell long positions, helping explain gold's recent rally. Still, Melek said gold may only move toward resistance at $4,280 an ounce, with TD not expecting its $5,300 target until next year. Spot gold was up 1.2% at $4,170.38 an ounce in Singapore, while silver rose 2.4% to $62.38, and platinum and palladium also advanced.