Analysts have raised their forecasts for Russian inflation this year, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, as nationwide fuel shortages following Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries pushed retail fuel prices higher.
Analysts saw full-year inflation at 5.7% compared to 5.5% in last month's poll. They also cut their 2026 economic growth forecast for Russia to 0.6% from 0.8% seen one month ago.
"We believe that the situation on the fuel market may create additional challenges for many producers in the third quarter," said Alfa Bank analysts, arguing that limited fuel supplies will have a negative impact on economic activity.
The Russian economy is already experiencing a slowdown with growth officially expected to be 0.4% this year, and President Vladimir Putin has asked officials to find ways to boost growth.
The Russian central bank on June 19 cut its key rate by a smaller-than-expected 25 basis points to 14.25%, citing inflation risks stemming from fuel shortages. The central bank will review its inflation forecast at its meeting on July 24.
The Russian rouble, which weakened by 2.2% to 78.6 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, the lowest level since April 8, was set to weaken further to 86.15 to the dollar in 12 months compared to 83.85 seen in the previous poll.