Latin America stocks head for quarterly loss; FX pressured by dollar

By Ragini Mathur and Utkarsh Hathi

Latin American currencies and stocks were mixed on Tuesday, pressured by a stronger dollar, as investors weighed local political developments and U.S. policy risks at the end of the month and quarter.

MSCI's regional currency index (.MILA00000CUS) edged 0.2% higher and remained on track for a sixth straight quarterly gain. For the month, however, the gauge was set to decline after two consecutive monthly advances.

The equivalent stocks index (.MILA00000PUS) was down 0.2%, although it was poised for a quarterly loss after five straight quarters of gains, and was also headed for a second consecutive monthly decline.

Latin American markets, typically driven by commodity prices and domestic politics, also came under pressure from the firm U.S. dollar amid rising expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The region has largely missed the AI-driven rally that has propelled some Asian markets to record highs.

Still, analysts said Latin American assets had held up relatively well during the U.S.-Iran conflict, which began in late February.

"LatAm is a supply hedge, not a Fed hedge. The region still benefits when supply shocks lift inflation and commodity support," said Geoff Yu, analyst at BNY.

"It does not hold up as well when tighter Fed pricing becomes the main macro driver. The positive terms-of-trade shock has faded, and LatAm assets are more exposed to tighter U.S. financial conditions than many other EMs."

Colombian BVC:ICAP and Peruvian (.MIPE00000PUS) stocks were set for monthly gains.

Both countries benefited from the perception of a pivot to market-friendly governments in their presidential elections.

The right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori leads the final count in Peru's presidential runoff after the country's ONPE electoral authority finished tallying 100% of the vote on Monday after weeks of reviewing contested ballots.

Peru's stock benchmark and the sol FX_IDC:USDPEN were set for quarterly gains.

However, Colombian equities appeared muted for the quarter. Earlier this month, the country's right-wing outsider Abelardo De La Espriella narrowly won the presidency, though the tight result is expected to constrain his agenda and force him to seek compromises in a divided Congress.

Investors also awaited the country's central bank policy rate decision later in the day.

"Markets are taking profits after the election bounce, and today’s expected 50 bp BdlR (Banco de la República) hike to 11.75% is unlikely to stop that," said Yu.

The Brazilian real FX_IDC:USDBRL was flat, while the Bovespa stock index BMFBOVESPA:IBOV fell 0.8% on the day.

Gross debt in the region's largest economy rose by more than expected in May, rising to 81.1% of its gross domestic product, central bank data showed on Tuesday, as the country's rising interest bill pushed borrowing higher.

In Mexico, U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is expected to formally declare on Wednesday that it will not extend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade, starting a decade-long clock to wind down the 32-year-old North American free trade zone as the three countries haggle over proposed changes.

The Mexican peso FX_IDC:USDMXN was flat, while the country's stock benchmark BMV:ME fell 0.4% on the day.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1517 GMT: