0839 GMT - New rules on cryptocurrencies announced by the U.K.'s Financial Conduct Authority should provide stronger consumer protection and reduce scams but doesn't completely remove risks, AJ Bell's Dan Coatsworth says in a note. "Investors will still need to ensure they understand that crypto prices often exhibit wild swings and that the asset class is driven purely by speculation," he says. Crypto firms operating in the U.K. will need to undertake stress tests to prove they can withstand market shocks and hold adequate capital as a financial buffer in the case of losses as part of the FCA's new rules. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0827 GMT - U.S. interest-rate rise expectations make it challenging for Japanese authorities to push back against the yen's sharp fall against the dollar, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. "As we saw back in late April/early May, record intervention from Japan only briefly strengthened the yen but failed to reverse the weakening trend for long." Japan might therefore be more tolerant of yen weakness in the near term as long as the pace remains gradual, he says. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama's comments that Japan will take appropriate action on currencies as needed fall short of strongly signally imminent interventions, he says. The dollar rises 0.2% to 162.25, near a 40-year low of 162.41 reached earlier, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0825 GMT - Inflation in the Philippines likely remained high in June, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas says in a statement. The decline in domestic oil prices and lower prices of major food items, such as rice and meat, may have tempered inflation. However, high electricity rates and vegetable prices could partly offset those lower price pressures. The central bank says it will continue to monitor recent developments in the Middle East for implications on inflation and economic activity. BSP expects inflation to settle within the range of 6.0% to 7.0% for June, compared to May's 6.8%. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0821 GMT - The European Central Bank's forum on central banking in Sintra, Portugal, is unlikely to materially impact the euro, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. ECB President Christine Lagarde's opening remarks Monday were quite measured, he says. There was little to prompt markets to revise expectations for another interest-rate rise this year and other ECB speakers this week should broadly validate that pricing, he says. "We acknowledge downside risks for euro versus the dollar ahead of U.S. data and [Federal Reserve Chair Kevin] Warsh's speech in Sintra, but remain more in favor of stabilization around or just above $1.140 rather than a retesting of last week's lows in the coming days." The euro falls 0.3% to $1.1389. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0806 GMT - The European Central Bank's move to increase its key rate earlier this month was a "robust decision", its chief economist Philip Lane says, pushing away some accusations that it was a pre-emptive rise. "I would reserve the phrase 'insurance hike' to a situation where there's a tiebreaker...But that was not the June decision. That was a clear decision, robust across a wide range of scenarios," he told Bloomberg TV on the sidelines of the ECB's conference in Sintra, Portugal. The ECB is committed to not "boxing ourselves in" by speculating about future rate decisions, instead focusing on a meeting-by-meeting approach, Lane says. ECB President Lagarde said at the policy meeting that the decision to hike rates by a quarter-point was unanimous by policymakers. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0754 GMT - Bitcoin falls, trading below the key $60,000 level, as it struggles to recover from its recent sharp selloff. The market is digesting the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, lifting the dollar and weighing on bitcoin, says Stephen Coltman at 21Shares in a note. Meanwhile, crypto-hoarding group Strategy said on Monday that it might sell bitcoin to raise up to $1.25 billion in cash to help cover dividend payments on its preferred stock and the interest on outstanding debt, as well as to fund its share-repurchase program and cash reserve. Bitcoin drops 1.3% to $59,421, having reached a 21-month low of $58,075 on Thursday last week, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0744 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, fall after data showed annual U.K. GDP growth was revised down to 0.9% year-on-year in the first quarter, from 1.1% previously. The consensus forecast in a WSJ survey was for an unchanged reading, although quarterly growth was unrevised at 0.6%. U.K. economic growth is expected to slow in the coming months, reducing the prospects of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months. Ten-year gilt yields fall 1.7 basis points to last trade at 4.703%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0743 GMT - China's gross domestic product growth is still likely to slow in 2Q despite a stronger-than-expected June purchasing managers index, says ING's Lynn Song in a note. The manufacturing PMI recovered to 50.3 in June, from 50.0 in May, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Nonmanufacturing PMI also stayed in expansionary territory. Despite the data beating downbeat expectations, they still indicate relatively tepid activity in China's economy, which could lead to 2Q economic growth slowing to 4.6% on year, says Song. Market participants are likely to closely watch July's Politburo meeting for signals of further stimulus, which ING anticipates could come in the form of consumption or investment support instead of a large-scale push. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0730 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields edge lower, moving in line with U.S. Treasury yields. Scope for Bund yields to fall much further is likely limited, says Commerzbank's Christoph Rieger. "Lower inflation numbers and no rebound in oil prices are probably needed to sustain 10-year Bund yields close to 2.85%," he says. There is no government bond supply in the eurozone on Tuesday, while the European Central Bank's forum in Sintra, Portugal could provide some further insight following President Christine Lagarde's introductory speech on Monday. The 10-year Bund yield falls 0.9 basis points to 2.846%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0720 GMT - The U.K. economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026, data confirmed Tuesday, indicating solid momentum at the start of the year, Quilter Cheviot's Jonathan Raymond says in a note. However, GDP growth could be set to slow due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as domestic political uncertainty, Raymond says. "The first quarter may prove to be a peak for growth rather than the start of a sustained recovery," he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0659 GMT - Oil prices could stay higher than prewar levels as energy firms and governments rebuild their inventories, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane says. Brent crude prices have fallen back to prewar levels in the last week. But demand for oil for restocking purposes could keep the oil price elevated and push inflation higher, Lane told Bloomberg on the sidelines of the ECB's forum at Sintra, Portugal. "From our point of view, it's very welcome that we see this decline in the price of oil. But in terms of the overall inflation impulse, the fact that we do have, maybe for a couple of years, oil prices above the prewar level, that essentially is a cost increasing impulse to the economy," he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0653 GMT - Markets likely now see the 163-165 yen range as the next key technical and psychological target for the dollar, says Masahiko Loo at State Street Investment Management in an email. This range is where "both positioning and policy risk become more acute," the senior fixed-income strategist says. "Intervention risk should not be underestimated as USD/JPY pushes toward 163-165," Loo says. The "probability of action rises materially and coordinated signaling with the U.S. Treasury cannot be ruled out, especially if a break above 163 triggers stop-driven momentum toward 165," Loo adds. The dollar is 0.2% higher at 162.25 yen, according to LSEG data. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)