Thai Equities Likely Supported by Better Economic Outlook — Market Talk

0410 GMT - Thailand's equities are likely to be supported by an improving economic outlook, UOB Kay Hian analysts say, as they keep an optimistic view of the market in July. The Bank of Thailand recently raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for the country to 2.3% from 1.5%, they note. Inflation remains at an appropriate level and within the BOT's 1%-3% target range. Negative real interest rates are also expected to shift investment flows to the equities market from the government bond market. This offers an opportunity to generate returns higher than the inflation rate.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0338 GMT - Chinese economic growth likely slowed in 2Q, with BofA Securities pegging on-year expansion of 4.5%, compared with 5.0% growth in 1Q. Demand-side indicators have weakened meaningfully while production has remained relatively resilient, the economists say. Fixed-asset investment likely remained weak in June, they say. BofA expects retail sales growth to return to positive territory, estimated at 0.3% on year in June from a drop of 0.6% in May. "Overall consumer momentum remains fragile, but the marginal improvement was likely supported by a half-year-end push in auto sales and a low year-ago base for restaurant spending," BofA says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0321 GMT - The Singapore dollar edges lower against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session amid lingering expectations of Fed rate hikes that typically enhance the appeal of U.S.-dollar denominated fixed-income assets. "Continued calibration of the Fed view following [Chairman] Warsh's commitment to the price stability mandate could provide the USD with some support," Maybank analysts say in a FX Research & Strategy report. Market is "pricing in some 30bps of hikes by the Fed before the end of 2026," the analysts add. The U.S. dollar is 0.1% higher at 1.2922 Singapore dollars. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0204 GMT - Australian job advertisements have been relatively stable over the past year, but due to continuing economic challenges, hiring demand could soften over the remainder of the year, says Callam Pickering, economist at global employment portal Indeed. The job market isn't necessarily strong, but it also isn't terrible, he adds. Still, the job market has become a greater consideration for the Reserve Bank of Australia in recent months, as cracks begin to appear. But these cracks aren't significant enough to stop the RBA from raising rates again, he adds.(james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0203 GMT - Bitcoin gains in early Asian trade. The gains follow after last week's cooler-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which eased fears about Fed rate hikes, says IG market analyst Tony Sycamore in a note. Expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates had been weighing on the appetite for bitcoin. "All of a sudden, the headwinds have begun to ease, and as a result we look for Bitcoin to extend its gains toward the $65,000-$67,000 resistance area," he says. Bitcoin is up 1.4% at $63,567.48.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0142 GMT - Markets seem to be in a holding pattern, waiting for the next catalyst for U.S. dollar and U.S. rates, MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says in a research report. Looking ahead, "global markets will take their cue from key data points such as the U.S. ISM services data and the FOMC minutes later this week, coupled with U.S. CPI next week," the senior currency analyst says. "There are also key questions around whether Japanese authorities intervened in the FX markets last week to cap JPY weakness, and as such the risk for USD/JPY as it continues to hover around the 162 levels," Wan adds. The dollar is 0.2% higher at 161.75 yen, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0134 GMT - Australian house prices were in retreat in June but the drop is just the beginning, says Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC. The recent big shifts in tax policy concerning investment properties, as well as the RBA's earlier three rate hikes, have rapidly sapped investor demand from the market, he says. Bloxham expects national house prices will fall up to 8% between now and the end of next year. The pace of decline in the June figures suggest the risks to this view look tilted to the downside too. "Hold onto your hats," Bloxham adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0113 GMT - Malaysia's central bank is expected to stand pat on rates Thursday, says Moody's Analytics in a note. Bank Negara Malaysia will likely hold its overnight policy rate steady at 2.75% through the rest of this year as inflation remains contained thanks to a cap on petrol prices. The ringgit has also held steady, Moody's says. The central bank said in June that it considers the monetary policy stance at the current OPR to be appropriate and consistent with the outlook of continued price stability and sustainable economic growth. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0033 GMT - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar amid possible position adjustments following the long U.S. holiday weekend. For this week, minutes from the Fed's June meeting is key event risk, CBA's Global Economic & Markets Research team says in a research report. "Market participants will parse the minutes for validation or contrast with the meeting's hawkish comments," the team says. However, "the minutes may be shorter or provide less insight than usual given [Fed Chairman] Warsh's view the Federal Reserve has provided too much guidance in the past," the team adds. The U.S. dollar is 0.2% higher at 1,532.70 won, but is little changed at 1.2914 Singapore dollars, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0027 GMT - The New Zealand central bank is likely to stand pat on interest rates this week, says Moody's Analytics in a note. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained its policy rate at 2.25% since November, and faces the debate on whether to withdraw monetary policy support amid risks to inflation and growth outlooks. "Recent developments in oil markets have eased pressure on headline inflation more than anticipated, providing space for a hold in July," Moody's says. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0017 GMT - The Australian dollar's rebound against its U.S. counterpart has run into resistance, based on technical charts, StoneX's Matt Simpson says in commentary. "There are plenty of resistance levels overhead," the senior market analyst says. The upper 1-week implied volatility band is just below US$0.7000 and the 20-day simple moving average is right on the June 11 low, making US$0.6976-US$0.7000 a potential resistance zone, the analyst says. However, with 200-day SMA around recent lows and above April's high, "I'm not seeking an excessively bearish move for now," Simpson adds. The Australian dollar is 0.1% lower at US$0.6934, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0012 GMT - JGBs fall in price terms in early Tokyo trade amid concerns over Japan's fiscal policies. "We see an increasing risk of the [10-year] yield testing 3% sooner than anticipated with a rising fiscal premium," Citi Research's Tomohisa Fujiki says in a research report. The rates strategist notes Japanese government's 370-trillion-yen growth investment strategy and pressure on the BOJ thought to be included in policy documents on budgetary requests. "If the government's investment program successfully boosts the [country's] potential growth rate, JGB yields should rise sharply," Fujiki adds. The 10-year JGB yield rises 3 bps to 2.800%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)