1131 GMT - Bitcoin rises as last week's weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data take the heat off interest-rate hike expectations for the Federal Reserve, Trade Nation's David Morrison says. Investors also responded positively to comments from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh last week, acknowledging moderating inflation while maintaining a data-dependent policy approach, he says in a note. However, markets still see a high probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points before year end, he says. Attention now turns to the Fed's meeting minutes for June on Wednesday. Bitcoin rises 0.2% to $62,835 after reaching a two-week high of $63,926 overnight, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1113 GMT - Further interventions by Japanese authorities to support the yen are possible but a sustained recovery for the currency requires an improved growth outlook, Societe Generale analysts say in a note. Japan still has about $1.3 trillion left in foreign-exchange reserves to defend the yen but low growth forecasts should limit the currency's rise for now, they say. However, the Japanese equity market's surge higher suggests the economy could be on the verge of improving, they say. SocGen expects the dollar to fall to 157 yen by year-end and to 154 by the second quarter of 2027. The dollar rises 0.6% to 162.27 yen. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1032 GMT - The dollar's strength looks set to persist in the second half of 2026, Societe Generale analysts say in a note. "The U.S. is now the only G-10 economy where consensus growth forecasts for this year are higher than they were at the start of the year." Even President Trump can't argue for lower interest rates if the economy is growing fast enough to keep inflation above target, they say. SocGen expects the DXY dollar index to rise to 103.6 and the euro to fall to $1.11 by year-end. The DXY last trades up 0.2% at 101.062 and the euro falls 0.2% to $1.1418. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0944 GMT - The U.S. dollar remains supported by high yields even after last week's soft U.S. jobs data prompted markets to trim Federal Reserve interest rate rise expectations, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. Relatively low G-7 foreign exchange volatility should encourage more interest in carry trades, where investors borrow in low yielding currencies to purchase higher yielding currencies, he says. One-week dollar deposit rates are in the top half of the G-10 table, he says. Markets are pricing in 30 basis points of rate rises this year, LSEG data show. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on Wednesday could signal potential tightening, lifting the dollar, Turner says. The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 101.084, and ING sees scope for further gains. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0913 GMT - Thailand's headline inflation is forecast to peak at around 4.4% in 1Q 2027, HSBC economists say in a research report. Inflation eased to 2.42% in June from May's 2.79% due to lower gasoline and diesel retail prices. June was also the third straight month that inflation was within the Bank of Thailand's 1%-3% target range. However, inflation is expected to rise above the BOT's target range in 2H, partly due to the El Nino season. HSBC expects inflation to ease back below 2.0% as early as 2Q 2027 as base effects fade. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0902 GMT - There may be more upside surprises for China's real estate market in 2H, say HSBC Global Research analysts in a note. June sales were modest but the number of companies delivering sales growth expanded to China Overseas Land and Investment, China Resources Land and Jinmao in the first half of 2026, from only Jinmao in 2025, they say. Improving fundamentals may boost market sentiment and investors should focus on key positives for the months ahead after the share-price correction, including an easier sales base comparison in 2H, land sales picking up and continued demand for high-end projects, HSBC says. Secondary market activity also remains resilient, supporting liquidity and signaling steady underlying demand, the bank adds. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0901 GMT - The Bank of Japan could accelerate interest rate rises, potentially supporting the yen, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. Japan's rate market looks underpriced for further tightening, he says. "We believe that the BOJ will increasingly take that policy needs to be tightened again sooner to address upside inflation risks." MUFG expects the policy rate to reach 1.50% by January 2027 from 1.00% currently with the next hike in September. LSEG data show just four basis points of rate rises priced for September. A faster pace of tightening would help address concerns the BOJ is constrained by fears over the burden of higher rates on servicing government debt, he says. The dollar rises 0.5% to 162.24 yen. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0856 GMT - Denmark's central bank could intervene further to support the Danish krone after taking action in June for the first time in more than three years, Danske Bank's August Hyldgaard says in a note. Data Thursday showed Danmarks Nationalbank bought 0.7 billion kroner in net terms on the market in defending its peg to the euro. History suggests the central bank reacts according to the circumstances that call for extended interventions, possibly in the area of 50 billion kroner, Hyldgaard says. Danske expects the central bank to cap the euro at 7.4758 kroner in the short term. The euro trades flat at 7.4746 kroner, having reached an 11-year high of 7.4759 on June 25, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0851 GMT - Singapore's retail sales growth momentum is likely to ease in 2H, as mounting economic headwinds could temper consumer spending, RHB Bank's group chief economist Barnabas Gan says in a report. Global geopolitical uncertainties are expected to weigh on consumer and business confidence, leading to more cautious spending on non-essential items such as fashion and recreational products. Elevated fuel and transport costs could also feed through gradually into broader consumer prices, pushing up inflation and affecting consumers' purchasing power. RHB maintains Singapore's 2026 retail sales growth forecast at 3.0%.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0834 GMT - Resilience in emerging-market fixed income during the Iran conflict has confirmed Generali Investments' long-held positive view, senior EM strategist Guillaume Tresca says in a note. Generali Investments continues to see value in local debt. It offers pro-cyclical exposure to a still-positive EM macroeconomic backdrop, with resilient economic activity and minimal growth revisions following the Iran conflict, he says. "Valuations look compelling," he says, adding that EM rates still offer attractive carry and real yield buffers, and markets should further reduce rate-hike expectations established in the early stage of the Iran conflict. Technicals are supportive for local debt as well, with foreign ownership remaining low by historical standards, while renewed inflows are building up, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0811 GMT - Evidence that the eurozone economy held up better than feared in the second quarter is a positive development for the euro, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. Last week's stronger-than-expected industrial production data for Spain and France prompted MUFG to raise its second-quarter eurozone growth forecast to 0.25% from a previous expectation of near-stagnation, he says. "In addition, a faster-than-expected reversal of the energy price shock should improve investor sentiment towards both the euro-area economy and the euro over the remainder of this year." The European Central Bank could raise interest rates again in September even though inflationary risks have eased, he says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1422 and MUFG expects it to rise back towards $1.18. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0754 GMT - Singapore's retail sales in the coming months should be supported by improving consumer confidence and easing labor-market risks, DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng says in a note. This comes as global economic uncertainty eases amid de-escalating tensions in the Middle East. Retail sales extended their growth for the fourth straight month in May, but cooled to 3.0% on year, down from April's 5.4%. Government support measures should also help to boost consumer spending, especially on essential items at supermarkets. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)