Bitcoin ETFs Post First Net Inflow in Nearly a Month — Market Talk

1025 ET - Bitcoin ETFs entered the holiday weekend on a positive note, according to data from CoinGlass. They posted a net inflow of $223.5 million on July 2, the first such inflow for these ETFs since June 12. Bitcoin had a mostly-positive holiday weekend, rising to as high as nearly $64,000, according to CoinGlass data, but is trading below $62,000 this morning. Part of the pressure is coming from sales of BTC by Michael Saylor's Strategy Inc.--although the market did have some advanced warning. "The market's reaction may be more muted than in the past following the company's recently introduced policy," says Christopher Tahir of Exness in a note. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1015 ET - Despite Bitcoin climbing as high as $64,000 over the holiday weekend, prices are down 1.8% to $61,593 this morning in response to two sales by Strategy Inc. The firm sold a total of 3,588 BTC on two occasions--one last week and one confirmed this morning. The sales brought in roughly $215 million, but Strategy's stockpile remains enormous, at 843,775 BTC with an average price of $75,476. Strategy remains underwater on its bitcoin holdings by roughly $11.8 billion. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1012 ET - The room is limited for German Bund yields to decline, the Investment Institute by UniCredit's Francesco Maria Di Bella says in a note. "We do not see much room for a significant decline in Bund yields due to the still-hawkish European Central Bank stance and the fact that energy prices have already substantially declined," the fixed income strategist says. UniCredit's end-2026 target for the 10-year Bund yield is 3%. The 10-year Bund yield last trades at 2.941%, up 1 basis point, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1009 ET - Germany's tap of the 1.30% October 2027 green Bobl on Tuesday could be its last, given its short residual maturity, The Investment Institute by UniCredit's Francesco Maria Di Bella says in a note. In addition, this bond is rather expensive, with a higher-than-average greenium--or green premium--of two basis points, the fixed income strategist says. The German Finance Agency's auction on Tuesday also includes the 2.60% May 2041 green Bund, which trades at an around 1 basis point greenium, the strategist says. Germany will auction 500 million euros in 2027-dated green Bobl and 1 billion euros in the 2041-dated green Bund. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0951 ET - Sterling's recent rise against the euro appears driven by a short-squeeze due to a lack of new negative political developments, Societe Generale analysts say in a note. That means traders who were previously betting against sterling are buying back the currency as it rises. U.K. politicians are careful not to scare the market since former Prime Minister Liz Truss caused turmoil with unfunded tax cuts, the analysts say. Sterling is now a "little stretched" relative to the euro but "not significantly out of line," suggesting modest softness from here, they say. SocGen expects the euro to rise to 0.87 pounds by year-end. The euro falls 0.2% to 0.8552 pounds, having reached a one-year low of 0.8544 Thursday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0939 ET - Sterling rises against the euro as fiscal concerns have eased, Ebury economist Enrique Diaz-Alvarez says in a note. Andy Burnham, the front-runner to succeed U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has insisted he will maintain the fiscal rules, but it remains unclear how he intends to fund his social and infrastructure spending priorities, Diaz-Alvarez says. Energy secretary Ed Miliband is the favorite to become treasury chief. "While his preference for fiscal expansion is a red flag for U.K. assets, the limited headroom means that realistically the hands will be tied for any occupant of Number 11." The euro falls 0.1% to 0.8550, having reached a one-year low of 0.8544 Thursday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0916 ET - The recent widening in Swedish-eurozone interest rate differentials could prevent the Swedish krona from recovering further in the near term, Societe Generale analysts say in a note. Sweden's low underlying inflation argues against the Riksbank following the European Central Bank in raising rates, they say. "Sweden is likely to enjoy significantly faster economic growth this year than the eurozone will, and there is little to change that picture on the longer-term horizon, but a narrower rate gap is a necessary condition for a lower euro versus krona." The euro falls 0.2% to 11.0129 kronor after reaching a 12-day low of 11.0050 overnight, LSEG data show. SocGen expects it to rise to 11.10 in the third quarter. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0852 ET - Treasury yields are mixed and the dollar edges higher as U.S. markets come back from the holiday without a Middle East peace deal and following last week's disappointing labor indicators. Oil prices decline as OPEC+ agrees to raise output. Fed minutes are due Wednesday, in a relatively calm week on the data front. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.2%. The 10-year yield is at 4.459%, up from Thursday's settle of 4.447%. The two-year slips to 4.108% from 4.130%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0757 ET - Canadian consumers are increasingly more inclined to open their wallets for discretionary purchases, bucking expectations that broader headwinds would weigh more on sentiment. In a report, Stifel's Martin Landry says 57% of respondents to a survey the firm recently conducted expect to increase their spending on discretionary items this year, the second-highest reading in the last three years. "These positive results may surprise some, especially given the increase comes mostly from low-income respondents," Landry says. He also says he's not sure what's driving the rebound "given we expected that inflationary pressures were weighing on consumer confidence, especially at the low-income level." However, the increase in confidence, says Landry, could suggest a rebound in spending in Canada in the second half of the year. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0731 ET - Bitcoin rises as last week's weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data take the heat off interest-rate hike expectations for the Federal Reserve, Trade Nation's David Morrison says. Investors also responded positively to comments from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh last week, acknowledging moderating inflation while maintaining a data-dependent policy approach, he says in a note. However, markets still see a high probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points before year end, he says. Attention now turns to the Fed's meeting minutes for June on Wednesday. Bitcoin rises 0.2% to $62,835 after reaching a two-week high of $63,926 overnight, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0713 ET - Further interventions by Japanese authorities to support the yen are possible but a sustained recovery for the currency requires an improved growth outlook, Societe Generale analysts say in a note. Japan still has about $1.3 trillion left in foreign-exchange reserves to defend the yen but low growth forecasts should limit the currency's rise for now, they say. However, the Japanese equity market's surge higher suggests the economy could be on the verge of improving, they say. SocGen expects the dollar to fall to 157 yen by year-end and to 154 by the second quarter of 2027. The dollar rises 0.6% to 162.27 yen. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0632 ET - The dollar's strength looks set to persist in the second half of 2026, Societe Generale analysts say in a note. "The U.S. is now the only G-10 economy where consensus growth forecasts for this year are higher than they were at the start of the year." Even President Trump can't argue for lower interest rates if the economy is growing fast enough to keep inflation above target, they say. SocGen expects the DXY dollar index to rise to 103.6 and the euro to fall to $1.11 by year-end. The DXY last trades up 0.2% at 101.062 and the euro falls 0.2% to $1.1418. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)