1515 ET - Bitcoin and some other major cryptocurrencies, like ethereum and XRP, are higher in afternoon trading. The crypto complex is seen as treading water to start the third quarter, as investors watch how the world inflation picture, and the next moves of the Kevin Warsh-led Federal Reserve, proceed. "Fed messaging and spot ETF flows remain key watchpoints, with markets likely to consolidate until institutional investors return," Binance Research says in a note. The firm adds that in June, cryptocurrency market capitalization fell 16.9% to $2.13T, "reflecting weak institutional positioning which exposed its dependence on ETF inflows that never materialized." Selling of altcoins--crypto tokens outside of bitcoin or stablecoins--rose to a five-year high, Binance says. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1506 ET - The World Cup is boosting spending in host cities as the tournament's knockout round continues, according to a Bank of America Institute report. Consumer spending in host cities is up 5.4% year over year over during the tournament's full group stage, according to the report, which cites credit and debit card spending data. Tourists visiting host cities for matches have been driving that growth, with their spending up 17%, the report says. During the group stage, the U.S. team played in Seattle and Los Angeles, where overall spending rose 5% and 6.8%, respectively, during the first stage of the tournament, the report says. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)
1456 ET - Oil futures settle lower while largely shrugging off two developments that would usually be bearish for prices--OPEC+ agreed to a fifth straight monthly increase in output targets and Saudi Arabia slashed its official August selling price for light crude to Asia by $11, from a $9.50 premium to a $1.50 discount against Oman-Dubai. "It is increasingly looking like the Gulf producers are gearing up for a price war," Mizuho's Robert Yawger says in a note. Added to that was a Ukrainian strike on Russia's largest refinery, "which will likely push more crude oil away from another damaged Russian refinery and into what is quickly becoming an oversupplied global market," he says. WTI settles down 0.2% at $68.55 a barrel and Brent ends down 0.2% at $71.99 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1454 ET - Livestock futures concluded trading on Monday a mixed bag, with live cattle finishing the day up 0.1% to $2.39375 a pound, and lean hogs settling down 0.2% to 98.55 cents a pound. Live cattle futures are getting pressured due to lower boxed beef prices, says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. "Now that holiday demand is behind, and summer weather impacts beef demand, further weakness in boxed beef prices may continue," says Blohm. Cutout prices through midday today were lower, according to USDA data. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1245 ET - The findings from the Bank of Canada's 2Q business-outlook survey don't reflect the current economic backdrop, says Desjardins Group economist Tiago Figueiredo. The survey showed a sharp increase in inflation expectations among Canadian firms. However, the data were collected in May, or before the US and Iran struck a deal to restart oil-tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. "Unfortunately, the majority of responses may look very different today than when the survey was conducted," he says. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1242 ET - The results from the Bank of Canada's 2Q business-outlook survey underscore the dilemma that policymakers faced at the height of the US-Iran conflict, says Robert Kavcic, economist at BMO Capital Markets. The survey results capture responses from May, and indicated that inflation expectations shot upward amid higher energy prices. "Lower oil prices should help dial these concerns back in 3Q," Kavcic says, adding a survey gauge of business activity still pointed to an economy stuck below potential. Kavcic says the firm still expects no change in the BOC main interest rate in 2026. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1237 ET - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller says that communicating the Fed's reaction function is important. "Be clear about what your objectives are---how are you going to respond to the data," Waller says while taking questions at a conference in Rome, Italy. "You reduce uncertainty in the markets and for households," he adds. Waller's comments follow Fed chairman Kevin Warsh's previous statement after June's meeting that markets perform best when they react to incoming data--and less efficiently when they ask how the Fed will react to that incoming information.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1111 ET - Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller says that forward guidance could be a useful tool for the central bank, but could also impair policy transmission if the guidance is too strong or rigid. "Forward guidance is also problematic when there are potentially different economic scenarios confronting policymakers, each with a significant probability of occurring and requiring different policy paths," Waller says at a conference in Rome, Italy. "One cannot simply take a weighted average of these scenarios as the 'base case' and use it to give forward guidance," according to published text of his remarks. Waller says restrictive guidance tied the hands of the FOMC in 2021 and unnecessarily delayed rate increases. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1109 ET - Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller says forward guidance could be a valuable tool that at times significantly strengthened policymaking. Speaking at a conference in Rome, Italy, Waller says forward guidance "will continue to be useful," for the central bank, although there have been times when it has hindered, rather than helped policymaking. "When it works, forward guidance can change economic conditions more quickly than adjusting the policy rate alone," according to published text of his remarks. Waller's comments come as Fed chairman Kevin Warsh has a preference for no forward guidance from the central bank.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1104 ET - Major cryptocurrencies got a boost over the weekend, but again find themselves under pressure today. Bitcoin is struggling to cross back over the $62k mark, and other major cryptocurrencies are flagging as well. Bitcoin falls 1.3%, ethereum is down 1.6%, XRP slides 1.6%, and solana is off 1.1%. Another notable drop is being seen in cardano, which is down 4.7%. Cryptocurrencies are responding to news of Strategy Inc.'s fresh sales of bitcoin, which seem to be informing the sentiment of the wider cryptocurrency space. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1053 ET - Investors are not surprised about Strategy Inc. confirming fresh sales from its bitcoin treasury, but the news may be having a psychological effect on how traders approach the market. "Each actual sale weakens the 'never sell' perception around the BTC treasury model and brings capital structure pressure back into focus," says Lacie Zhang of Bitget. "So today's reaction is probably less about the size of the sale itself, and more about the narrative discount that comes from making those sales real." Zhang adds that while the hit to sentiment is spurring bitcoin selling, there are other signs of prices rebounding longer-term. Bitcoin is down 1.1% to just above $62,000, according to data from LSEG. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1025 ET - Bitcoin ETFs entered the holiday weekend on a positive note, according to data from CoinGlass. They posted a net inflow of $223.5 million on July 2, the first such inflow for these ETFs since June 12. Bitcoin had a mostly-positive holiday weekend, rising to as high as nearly $64,000, according to CoinGlass data, but is trading below $62,000 this morning. Part of the pressure is coming from sales of BTC by Michael Saylor's Strategy Inc.--although the market did have some advanced warning. "The market's reaction may be more muted than in the past following the company's recently introduced policy," says Christopher Tahir of Exness in a note. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)