“Probably, idk, might delete later.”
⚖️ Futures Hold Their Balance
- S&P 500 futures edged up 0.1% early Thursday, with Dow futures adding about 70 points and Nasdaq futures ticking 0.1% higher. After another headline-heavy session, traders seem content to keep the coffee hot and the positions light.
- The cautious tone followed Wednesday's volatile trade, when rattled markets before futures stabilized overnight.
- In Asia, sentiment improved. South Korea's Kospi rebounded 3% after slipping into a bear market the previous day, while the Kosdaq climbed 3.8% and Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 2%.
🛢️ Oil Keeps Calling the Shots
- Markets reacted after the US carried out fresh strikes on Iran in response to attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate crude added nearly 1%, keeping energy markets on alert.
- Wednesday's session reflected that friction. The Dow dropped 580 points, or 1.1%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.3% as rising oil prices revived inflation worries. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, managed a 0.2% gain thanks to strength in Nvidia and other chipmakers.
- Then came another headline. President Trump said the US would "probably" strike Iran again later that night. Markets generally prefer certainty. "Probably" isn't exactly a risk-management framework.
🏦 Fed Still in the Mix
- Higher oil prices are a big issue because they can fuel inflation, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. If inflation stays sticky, borrowing costs may stay elevated for longer.
- Minutes from the Fed's June meeting reinforced that message. Policymakers appeared divided and reluctant to ease policy until they see stronger evidence that inflation is moving sustainably back toward target.
- Next up is the weekly jobless claims report, a closely watched snapshot of the labor market. With war tremors dominating headlines again and the Fed still data-dependent, traders may find themselves reacting to whichever catalyst hits the tape first.