By Kirk Maltais

  • Corn for December delivery fell 0.3% at $4.40 3/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Thursday, slumping after starting the day positive as weather forecasts show hot temperatures easing in the coming days.
  • Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.2% to $11.46 3/4 a bushel.
  • Wheat for September delivery rose 0.1% to $6.00 1/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Turning Down the Temperature: The withering heat hitting U.S. crop-growing areas is expected to subside within the next 36 to 48 hours, Futures International's Gary Sandlund said in a note. "The U.S. weather and oppressive heat will be gone...returning to normal and even slightly below normal temps thru July 15th now which is nearly perfect for corn pollination," he said. The National Weather Service forecast on Wednesday was for temperatures to stay above average in much of the Corn Belt for the next 6 to 10 days, which was supportive for grain futures trading through this morning, before paring gains the rest of the day.

Sniffing Around: Chinese buyers were rumored to be asking around about U.S. soybean exports, giving CBOT grain futures a lift. "Somewhat optimistic we'll see some bean buying from China as they did seem to follow the same strategy of putting on futures before any cash buying which we saw in their last shopping spree," Marex's Charlie Sernatinger said in a note.

Supply Picture: The world supply picture provided support for wheat futures. U.S. winter wheat production is generationally low, and issues with wheat crops elsewhere are supporting futures. "The international picture adds fuel," Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull said in a note. Canada is reporting a 5.8% decrease in wheat production for 2026, while Russian farmers are being crimped by higher input costs. "Add lingering damage from the European heatwave and a U.S. balance sheet suddenly smaller than assumed, and wheat--the most shorted and most disparaged of the majors--has the raw material for a short-covering rally," Wiesemeyer said.

INSIGHT

Slim Fit: Investor sentiment improved after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its jobs report, which showed 57,000 jobs being added in June. That's roughly half of what analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected, boosting investors' hopes became more hopeful that interest rate hikes can be avoided, at least for now. That it isn't expected to provide a meaningful, long-term change in the macroeconomic landscape, Jonas Goltermann of Capital Economics said in a note. "The data released today don't change our view that the market is underestimating the chances of the FOMC returning to rate hikes later this year."

Found Lacking: Weekly export sales of U.S. soybeans fell below what was anticipated by analysts, with old-crop sales posting a marketing-year low. The USDA said that soybean export sales for the week ended June 25 totaled 224,300 metric tons--including just 41,800 tons sold in 2025/26. The total is well below the range of 500,000 tons to 1.5 million tons forecast by analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this week. Corn and wheat fell within analyst forecasts.

AHEAD

  • The USDA and CBOT will be closed in observance of the Independence Day holiday on Friday, both reopening on Monday.
  • The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.
  • The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.
  • The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Monday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com