CITIC Securities Forecasts China’s 2026 GDP Growth at About 4.7%

CITIC Securities said in a research note that in the second half of 2026, China’s economy will be reshaped by spillover effects from an AI-related capital expenditure cycle and imported inflation, according to 36Kr. The brokerage said exports are likely to remain strong while domestic demand stays steady, and it forecast full-year real GDP growth of about 4.7%.

On asset allocation, CITIC Securities said base metals, crude oil and equities are relatively high-certainty directions for the second half. Within equities, it highlighted structural opportunities in an “AI + energy and chemicals” combination. For bonds, it said the bond market’s interest-rate range-bound volatility may be difficult to break.