While geopolitics remains important, the bigger market driver in the second half of the year might be monetary policy, Columbia Threadneedle Investments' Anthony Willis says in a note. In the U.S., the economy remains resilient and the Federal Reserve has adopted a more hawkish tone, the senior economist says. "As investors reassess whether the Fed may need to raise rates again--and how often--market pricing is likely to remain sensitive to incoming data and central bank communication," he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)