U.S. Stocks End Blockbuster Quarter With Gains — Market Talk

1605 ET - Another strong session for technology shares lifts U.S. stocks to end the strongest quarter in years. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq post their largest advances since 2020 on expectations for rapid growth in spending to back artificial intelligence. Oil futures, meanwhile, post their biggest quarterly decline since 2020 on relief about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. DJIA gains 135 points, or 0.3%, to 52317, the S&P 500 rises 0.8% to 7499 and the Nasdaq climbs 1.5% to 26213. For the quarter the Nasdaq jumped21%, the S&P 500 rose 15% and the DJIA added 13%. (patrick.sullivan@wsj.com)

1551 ET - Treasury yields extend their increase to cap another rising quarter as investors sell off bonds amid inflation concerns and uneven progress in Middle East peace talks. Oil prices stick around pre-war levels, while indicators show the U.S. economy is still resilient. Job data in the next couple of days are expected to show employment cooling, but still at relatively healthy levels. The 10-year yield rises 0.045 percentage point to 4.420% and the two-year adds 0.031 p.p. to 4.138%. The two-year sees its largest quarterly yield advance since the fourth quarter of 2024, up 0.339 p.p. in the period. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1515 ET - Oil futures end the session, the month and the quarter lower amid market relief about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, despite recent skirmishes and differences between the U.S. and Iran on control of the waterway. A significant development is seeing supertankers move into the Persian Gulf as opposed to ships just trying to get out, Arlan Suderman of StoneX says in a note. The increased transit, along with Saudi exports via the Red Sea "is close to rebalancing global supplies" given high U.S. exports and lower Chinese imports, he adds. "The market is saying that it believes the United States will respond appropriately each time that Iran tries to control the Strait of Hormuz." WTI settles at $69.50 a barrel, down 31% from the end of March for its biggest quarterly decline since 1Q 2020. The August Brent contract goes off the board at $72.92 for a quarterly loss of 38%. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1430 ET - Oil futures give up earlier gains as the presence of U.S. and Iranian negotiators in Qatar puts focus back on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. "People are accepting the fact that maybe this will all be resolved soon," says Baron Lamarre, petroleum economist and Co-Founder of Index Litro as well as former head of trading at Petronas. Also, more oil could be getting through the strait than is being accounted for, with a lot of ships that cross the waterway turning off their tracking devices, he adds. "So you don't really know for certain how many vessels and what volume they're carrying. There's a question mark there." WTI is down 1.5% at $65.70 a barrel, and Brent is off 1% at $73.18. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1338 ET - Intervention to support the Japanese yen could end up fueling demand for the U.S. dollar. Bannockburn's Marc Chandler says that traders are buying puts as protection against a pro-yen intervention. That type of insurance would skyrocket in value if the intervention materializes. Chandler expects the profits to be used to buy dollars, doubling-down on bets that the greenback will continue to rise. The yen is at a 40-year low, at 162.64 per dollar. The greenback strengthens on robust U.S. indicators and forecasts of a hawkish Fed. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.1%, with the dollar gaining 0.4% against the yen and 0.1% versus the euro and the Swiss franc. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1216 ET - Treasury yields and the dollar keep rising after a batch of somewhat reassuring U.S. indicators. The Conference Board consumer confidence index ticks higher to 91.2, although below WSJ consensus of 94.2. May job openings were unchanged at 7.6 million. Fed funds futures price in 83% odds of at least one hike this year, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Employment data due the next couple of days are expected to cool down while staying at healthy levels, in WSJ surveys. The 10-year yield is at 4.402%, on pace for a third consecutive quarterly rise. The WSJ Dollar Index rises slightly, on track for its fourth consecutive quarterly gain. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1130 ET - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack says if higher inflation trends continue, the Fed may need to raise interest rates to restore inflation to target, citing robust consumer spending and short-term inflationary pressures from the AI data center buildup. Outside of higher energy prices, Hammack says during a CNBC interview, "When I look at that core inflation, that's been very elevated." Additionally, Hammack adds that she wants to see if consumer spending continues to hold up. "If it does, then that says to me that policy may not be restrictive enough to help us bring inflation back down," she says.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1122 ET - Japan's efforts to support the yen could have implications for U.S. government borrowing, Corpay's Karl Schamotta tells WSJ in an email. Tokyo is widely expected to intervene as the yen hits a 40-year low against the dollar. Schamotta says past interventions have seen a relatively small amount of sales from Japan's large holdings of Treasurys, since a significant selloff would cause U.S. yields to spike, further strengthening the greenback. However, Japanese FX policies could seek to keep more capital at home, hampering dollar-bound flows that for years have allowed Washington to finance its own debt. The U.S. "has grown accustomed to Japanese demand for its debt," Schamotta says. "It should not assume that demand is unconditional." (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1026 ET - The median U.S. luxury home sale price rose 4.7% year over year to $1.37 million during the three months ending May 31, Redfin says. That's more than triple the 1.5% gain in non-luxury sale prices. Luxury prices are increasing largely because demand for luxury homes is on the rise. Pending sales of luxury homes rose 5.2%, compared with a 3.6% gain in non-luxury pending sales, which is deceleration from the month before. High-end homebuyers are less sensitive to affordability pressures and financial instability. Overall homebuying demand has been fairly slow because mortgage rates and home prices remain high. Ultra-wealthy Americans have the freedom to make big purchases even in uncertain times. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1019 ET - Most-active lean hog futures are up 1.7%, potentially establishing upward momentum after last week's Hogs and Pigs report showed a shrinking hog supply in the second half of 2026. Livestock traders are keeping an eye on the flow of news surrounding the future of the USMCA, which is important to hogs as Mexico and Canada are large buyers of U.S. pork exports. If President Trump does announce that the deal will not be extended, then that leaves it in "infinite limbo," says StoneX in a note. "We may be in rounds of negotiation for the remainder of the Trump administration, if not longer," says the firm. Live cattle are down 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0942 ET - Recession talk in Canada, sparked by a 0.1% annualized decline in 1Q, was for naught based on April GDP data, says Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. GDP by industry rose 0.5% in April, and 1.1% on a 12-month basis, which marks the fastest pace of year-over-year growth in seven months. Porter says GDP is on track for 2%-plus annualized growth in 2Q, given early estimate for a 0.1% jump in May. The May estimate "will serve as a reminder that Canada is still growing slower than potential," Porter says. "Nevertheless, it's also clear that the small two-quarter dip in output was a false alarm on the recession watch." (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0940 ET - Canada's GDP data for April should take some air out of the recent recession talk in the country, says Marc Ercolao, economist at TD Bank. GDP by industry rose 0.5% in April from the prior month, and that leaves quarterly GDP tracking above 2% annualized, he says. GDP growth in April was largely fueled by the commodities sector, although 14 of 20 sectors tracked by Statistics Canada recorded growth in the month. Ercolao says the economy is grinding through a soft patch. For the Bank of Canada, he adds, "this argues for patience rather than a pivot." He says the data will take pressure off BOC to cut rates to deal with the economic slump. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)