Molly Bordoff

When you bite into that big, juicy burger on this very special Fourth, relish it. You paid for it.

Sticker shock in the grocery aisles is no surprise. Inflation has been creeping up since February, but your wallet will feel a lot lighter after you scan the hamburger, hot dogs, buns, and even the barbecue sauce for your party celebrating America's 250th birthday.

The American Farm Bureau Federation figures you'll spend $73.82 to feed 10 — or $7.38 a person. The bill will be 9.4% higher than last year's holiday cookout, according to Datasembly, a company that collects prices for retailers.

"If you're just getting a pound of something it's easy to say 'no big deal,' but if you're hosting a party or anything similar, those pounds add up," says Shaunna Gray, a shopper at Whole Foods on Manhattan's Upper West Side.

The jump in beef prices — ground beef and all-beef wieners — is more than 17% higher year over year. Buns and condiments are in the double digits, too. Barbecue sauce, for example, is up 13%.

But don't think it stops at the meat counter. Tomatoes and lettuce have climbed 32% and 24.9% year over year, respectively, according to the Consumer Price Index.

At Target on Manhattan's Upper West Side, a pound of 85/15 ground beef costs $9.29 and a 15-ounce package of eight beef hot dogs sells for $6.79. A pound of cheddar cheese and a pound of chicken wings both ring up at $3.99.

"I'm gonna buy what I'm gonna buy.....Groceries are a lot more expensive here than where I grew up, in St. Louis," says Eran Hoener, who also was shopping at Whole Foods. "It's a lot cheaper there."

There are good reasons why food costs so much, economists tell Barron's. Today, the main driver is the Iran war.

"It impacts the price of oil, the price of fertilizer," says David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University.

The conflict has driven up farming and transportation expenses, especially for perishables that require greater energy inputs.

And there are other explanations, too. For produce, two big ones are the weather — drought and freezing — and the Trump tariffs. For beef, it's supply and demand.

Four years ago, a major drought dried up pastures and water supplies, forcing ranchers to sell their livestock. That explains the shortage.

"We are at incredibly high beef prices because the cow herd is at its lowest point in 80 years," says Justin Benavidez, the Department of Agriculture's chief economist. "It's important to keep in mind that you're not able to just grow beef supply overnight."

The high demand is driven primarily by GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and the protein push from muscle-focused exercise, Ortega tells Barron's.

Not everything, though, costs more. Two notable exceptions are chicken and cheese. Chicken is down 0.8% and cheese has inched down 0.9%.

Chickens reach market weight in just a few months, making it easier to boost supply. And the dairy case is well stocked because supply is high and demand just isn't as high as it is for beef.

"The market is flooded in dairy products," Michigan State's Ortega says.

Cheaper chicken is little consolation to David Manhire, who owns Summer Daze Catering in Basking Ridge, N.J., about an hour outside New York City.

Manhire does have chicken nuggets on his food truck's menu, but he dishes up mostly beef. Smash burgers and chopped cheese sandwiches made from prime Angus beef. Cheesesteaks and quarter-pound, all-beef hot dogs.

Manhire buys from Costco, Sam's Club, and Restaurant Depot — wherever he finds the cheapest prices. But inflation is everywhere.

"Everything has gone up," Manhire says. "Our beef has gone up. Our rolls have gone up. Hot dogs have gone up. Everything has increased."

And for Manhire and all the rest of us, things aren't going to get better anytime soon. Mostly because of Iran.

"There's a lot of factors that will keep food prices elevated for a bit of time," Ariane Curtis, senior North American economist at Capital Economics, tells Barron's. With food, she says, the lag is longer than for other items like gasoline.

"It's not just the rise in prices. Prices have increased, quality has decreased, and the amounts have decreased," says Gray, the Whole Foods shopper. "You're being hoodwinked!"

Write to Molly Bordoff at molly.bordoff@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

Corrections & Amplifications

The high demand for beef is driven primarily by GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and the protein push from muscle-focused exercise, says David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University. An earlier version of this article incorrectly attributed the statement to Justin Benavidez, the Department of Agriculture's chief economist.