1220 ET - Gold prices rebound after softer-than-expected jobs data and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh not giving any signal as to whether the central bank would consider raising interest rates at its next meeting. In afternoon trading, New York gold futures rise 1.5% to $4,100.60 a troy ounce. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in about a 64% chance of an interest-rate hike for September. Bullion is typically seen as a hedge against inflation, though a higher interest-rate environment tends to diminish the nonyielding asset's appeal. "Now it is up to US data to keep those hawkish Fed bets alive, making tomorrow's NFP data a major market event," says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1124 ET - Bitcoin prices may have further downside before they find a bottom, if the predictions of traders going short on the cryptocurrency end up being correct. Traders have been seen adding puts on bitcoin, according to data from Deribit. Near-term, traders appear to believe that bitcoin could lapse to around $54,000. A majority of puts dated for expiration this Friday are at the $54k mark, according to Deribit, while those dated for expiration next Friday are around $56k. Call options take back control closer to the end of the month, according to the data. The average realized price for bitcoin sits around $53,000 as of now, says analysts with Bitfinex in a note. "Historically, this is the line past which an extended trade marks full capitulation," says the firm. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1108 ET - The U.S.'s lead in AI development will ultimately rely on European markets, ECB President Christine Lagarde says at a forum held by the central bank in Sintra, Portugal. "I think that we are all sort of hostage to each other, if I may say, because we need those frontier companies, but they need the markets." Lagarde expects healthy competition between the U.S. and Europe as the AI economy develops, with much of the supply chain yet to be determined. "We are in this game together," she says. AI is likely to have a radical impact on productivity going forward, and the ECB will need to determine its inflationary impact, Lagarde adds. "It might be disinflationary first and inflationary second, or probably more so the other way around." (don.forbes@wsj.com)
1103 ET - The pace of layoffs cooled considerably in June, according to a recent job cuts report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas. U.S.-based employers announced 45,849 job cuts in June, down 53% from May. Technology once again led the decline, with 15,503 job cuts in June for a total of 139,156 in 2026. AI also led the reason for job cuts for the fourth month in a row. "AI is the dominant force as companies are restructuring around it, automating roles, and reallocating budgets toward new capabilities. The sector is being reshaped in real time," said Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer of the firm. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1057 ET - Credit investors are better off buying quality high-yield credit rather than investment-grade credit, BlackRock global chief investment strategist Wei Li says at BlackRock's 2026 midyear outlook media roundtable. The quality of high-yield credit has improved over the years, she says. High-yield credit also has attractive yields, Li says. Investment-grade credit is expected to face increased supply as AI-linked companies issue more debt to finance their growth, making IG credit less appealing compared to HY credit, she says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1055 ET - The Trump administration is not expected to renew the USMCA, but that doesn't mean the agreement is over. Not only do the existing terms of the deal last into the next decade, but the U.S. is likely using this decision as a way "to keep pressure" on Mexico and Canada, says Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull. The automotive industry is at the center of the current dispute around the deal, but risk is there for other market segments like agriculture. "The pact's agricultural market access provisions are not the immediate target of the auto-content debate, but once the U.S. uses the review to reopen the broader agreement, farm issues can quickly become bargaining chips," Wiesemeyer says. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1022 ET - Asking prices fell 2.5% year-over-year in June, Realtor.com says, the eighth consecutive month of decreases. Pending sales rose 3.7% year-over-year for the seventh straight month of growth. For the first time in 26 months, homes spent no more time on market than they did a year earlier, a further indication buyers are showing up as the market rebalances, Realtor.com says. The national median list price was $430,000 in June, flat from May, but down 2.5% from a year ago. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
1011 ET - The ICE U.S. dollar index is up 0.1% and the greenback is steady at 162.49 yen after hitting a 40-year high of 162.83 earlier. There is speculation among traders that Japanese authorities could take advantage of U.S. holiday-thinned trade on Friday to intervene against the yen's weakness. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Tuesday renewed her pledge to address excessive yen volatility. "We will take appropriate action on currencies at any time as needed," Katayama said at a news conference. Japan's efforts to support the yen could have implications for U.S. government borrowing. If Japanese FX policies seek to keep more capital at home, it might lessen Japan's demand for U.S. Treasurys. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
1004 ET - U.K. government bonds look appealing in comparison to other developed-market government bonds over the long term, BlackRock's head of portfolio research Vivek Paul says at BlackRock's 2026 midyear outlook media roundtable. Gilts already have a term premium priced in and they offer attractive yields relative to peers, he says. Gilts could experience near-term volatility due to political turbulence, but they look attractive over the long term, Paul says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0952 ET - Bitcoin ETFs continued to shed money in yesterday's trading session, closing out the month of June and the second quarter of 2026 with a $222.6 million outflow from ETFs, according to data from Coinglass. Net outflows from bitcoin ETFs have been continuous for more than two weeks now, according to Coinglass data. Similar is true for ether ETFs, while solana and XRP ETFs have had a mixed showing — although the volume of these ETFs are only a fraction of what bitcoin ETFs reports. Cryptocurrencies are trading higher, with bitcoin up 0.3%, ethereum up 0.2%, XRP up 0.1%, and solana up 2.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0935 ET - President Trump's financial disclosure, which showed that he made over $1B off of cryptocurrency-based endeavors last year, is proof of crypto's entrance into mainstream finance, says Nigel Green of deVere Group in a note. "Digital assets are now firmly embedded in the global financial system," says Green. "Crypto businesses have become large enough and influential enough to rival traditional industries that have dominated major wealth creation for generations." Trump made much of his money through royalties from his Trump memecoin, as well as token sales by the Trump crypto venture World Liberty Financial, the WSJ reports. Major cryptocurrencies are inching higher this morning, with bitcoin up 0.2% to $58,763, ethereum up 0.1% to $1,575, and XRP up 0.1% to $1.04. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0933 ET - Speculation is heightened that Japanese authorities could take advantage of U.S. holiday-thinned trade on Friday to intervene against the yen's weakness, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. Indeed, it could be a bigger surprise if no action is taken, she says. Further interventions might look inevitable but they are unlikely to be sufficient on their own to change the market's negative views on the yen, she says. The yen's weakness partly reflects a stronger dollar but gains in Japanese stocks could be prompting foreign investors to increase their protection against the risk of the yen falling, she says. The dollar is steady at 162.49 yen after hitting a 40-year high of 162.83 earlier, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)