0855 ET - S&P futures are building onto earlier gains following weaker job creation in June. Non-farm payrolls grew by 57,000 last month,below the 115,000 economists polled by WSJ expected. May's payrolls were also revised down to 129,000 from 172,000. The jobless rate ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3%. The weaker-than-expected report could mean that the Federal Reserve may be less likely to raise rates sooner rather than later. The Fed recently adopted a more hawkish tone with regard to inflation triggered by rising energy costs, leading markets to believe a rate hike could be in the cards. S&P futures are up 26 points. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
0851 ET - Plans to rebalance the U.K.'s industrial economy should aim to support areas where the strongest output can be achieved, Hugo Bessis at Oxford Economics says in a note. Andy Burnham, the likely contender to replace Keir Starmer as U.K. prime minister, recently outlined plans for stronger public intervention in the economy and deeper devolution of power. This drive for "good growth in every postcode" gives fresh impetus for U.K. industry, but should be targeted in places with the strongest potential to drive growth, such as London, Reading, Cambridge, and Manchester, Bessis says. "Indeed, good growth in every postcode should be better defined as ensuring prosperity and opportunity can reach everywhere, as opposed to economic activity itself being everywhere," he says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
0849 ET - Treasury yields and the dollar slide as the U.S. economy creates fewer jobs than expected in June. The BLS reports jobs growth at 57,000, lower than WSJ consensus of 115,000. May's figure is revised down to 129,000 from 172,000, and April's to 148,000 from 179,000. June's unemployment rate ticks lower to 4.2% from 4.3%. The data runs against expectations of Fed hikes that help support the dollar. Weekly jobless claims fall slightly, to 215,000 from an upwardly revised 216,000, versus expectations of 220,000. The WSJ Dollar Index is down 0.7%. The 10-year yield falls to 4.461% from 4.505% before the data. The two-year drops to 4.108% from 4.191%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0759 ET - The latest Bank of England credit conditions survey shows mortgage demand increased in the second quarter. The data show that U.K. households weathered the Middle East tensions notably well potentially helped by the dip in U.K. inflation in April and the BOE interest rates not rising, Propertymark CEO Nathan Emerson says in a note. "More stable levels of secured debt, such as mortgages, generally indicate there has been no sudden or harsh shift in consumer confidence." The survey also showed that the availability of secured credit to households was unchanged in the three months to end-May 2026 but was expected to increase over the three months to the end of August. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0754 ET - The U.K. government could increase taxes at the autumn budget to meeting growing spending requirements, UBS Global Research economists say in a note. The government needs funds to finance defense projects, energy support programs, and any additional investment projects, the economists says. There is a risk that the new U.K. leader could drop the Labour party promise to not increase income tax, VAT or corporation tax, they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0718 ET - Bitcoin rises to a one-week high as markets scale back expectations for interest-rate rises by the Federal Reserve slightly. The repricing comes after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said Wednesday that inflation risks had eased. Markets responded to his comments by largely pricing out a July rate hike, though Warsh declined to offer forward guidance and reaffirmed the Fed's 2% inflation target, Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev says in a note. "Today's [nonfarm] payrolls report will either reinforce or challenge that repricing." The data are due at 1230 GMT. Bitcoin rises 1.9% to as high as $61,323, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0714 ET - The U.K. government could ease current fiscal policies due to near-term spending pressures on defense and energy, UBS Global Research economists say in a note. Andy Burnham, the frontrunner to succeed Keir Starmer as prime minister, this week announced his economic policies. Burnham's plan to grow the economy along with increased public spending requirements mean that the government could loosen the fiscal policies, the economists says. The rules require that government day-to-day spending will be met through tax revenue, rather than borrowing, by the end of the current parliamentary term in fiscal year 2030. The fiscal rules also require the reduction of government debt as a share of U.K. national income. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0701 ET - The cost of insuring euro credit against default stays steady as investors await U.S. jobs data due at 1230 GMT. Economists in a WSJ poll expect the data to show 115,000 new jobs created, fewer than the 172,000 new jobs recorded in May. The jobs data matter because they will indicate "genuine labor-market strength or expose a narrow, uneven jobs engine with more slack than the unemployment rate admits," Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps is unchanged at 245bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0631 ET - U.S. Treasury yields rise though the dollar falls ahead of closely-watched employment data for June due at 1230 GMT. The dollar falls "amid easing geopolitical concerns as U.S.-Iran talks and diplomatic efforts continue," says Kudo.com's Konstantinos Chrysikos in a note. "Progress on this front could limit safe-haven demand and weigh on the dollar," he says. Any setbacks could drive more flows into the currency, however. Meanwhile, market expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes keep Treasury yields elevated. The two-year Treasury yield rises 1 basis point to 4.173% and the 10-year yield is up 1.8 basis points to 4.491%, according to Tradeweb. The DXY dollar index falls 0.3% to 101.078, having hit a nine-day low of 100.922 earlier. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0549 ET - The Japanese yen recovers to a two-week high against the dollar as markets pare U.S. interest rate rise pricing slightly and traders remain sensitive to the prospect of currency interventions by Japanese authorities. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said on Wednesday that inflation risks have eased. "The proximity of the U.S. holiday tomorrow is also making market participants nervous over the risk of Japan intervening in the FX market to support that yen," MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. Intervention bets are fuelled further by Reuters reporting that Japan could shift to surprise yen intervention tactics. The dollar falls to a two-week low of 160.96 yen, having risen to a 40-year high of 162.83 Wednesday, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0543 ET - The recent fall in eurozone government bond yields and softer eurozone growth are contributing to a weaker euro in the near-term, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says. The eurozone's two-year yield has fallen 30 basis points after hitting a peak of 2.83% on June 18, he says. That is "a much bigger drop in yields than in the U.K. and U.S. rate markets over the same period." It comes as the rates market has become less confident that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates further this year, he says. The euro falls to a one-year low of 0.8548 pounds, according to LSEG. Against the dollar, the euro rises 0.3% to $1.1414 after hitting one-year low of $1.1324 last week. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0527 ET - A joint U.S.-Japan foreign-exchange intervention to buoy the yen doesn't seem likely at this juncture, says RBC BlueBay Asset Management's Russel Matthews in an interview. The relative stability of core government bond yields likely leaves the U.S. reluctant to get involved, the senior portfolio manager for global macro strategy says. However, he flags that long-end Japan government bond yields could become more volatile amid continued yen weakness, such as the 10-year yield approaching 3.0%. The volatility could seep into Treasurys and global government bonds and increase the need for collective intervention, he adds. RBC BlueBay has a neutral position on the yen. Matthews notes that Tokyo's potential intervention measures appear "increasingly random [and] sporadic." (megan.cheah@wsj.com)