1115 ET - The dollar weakens against major currencies, including 1% versus the yen, following dismal U.S. payrolls data. The decline may ease the prospect of imminent intervention to prop up the Japanese currency, but at 161 per dollar, the yen remains a point of concern. An intervention would entail sales of dollars and other FX reserves by Japanese authorities, Capital.com's Daniela Hathorn says. Treasurys could get in the mix, but not enough to push yields much higher. "The bigger question is will intervention even work," she says. Hathorn adds that past actions didn't have a lasting impact because "fundamentals hadn't changed as exchange rates ultimately follow interest-rate differentials and capital flows." (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1113 ET — Planet Labs's agreement to launch one of its next-generation Pelican satellites aboard an Isar Aerospace Spectrum rocket highlights growing demand for European-built space infrastructure. The companies aim to complete what they say would be the first launch of a German-built satellite on a German-built rocket within 12 months, underscoring Europe's drive to expand sovereign space capabilities as governments prioritize security and resilience. For Planet, the partnership complements its planned expansion of satellite manufacturing in Berlin, while giving the company greater access to European launch capacity as it builds out its next-generation constellation.(anvee.bhutani@wsj.com)
11:11 Evercore ISI says a "back-to-normal employment report keeps the Fed focus on inflation." The economists believe the Fed will look at the weaker June jobs report as bringing hiring data back into better alignment after prior months where payrolls were surprisingly strong. "Some argue that this report makes rate hikes this year significantly less likely. We do not really agree," they say. Santander's Stephen Stanley concurs. "It will be the inflation data that determine the FOMC's course of action," he says. He thinks the June jobs report may change the perception of Fed officials "ever so slightly," but thinks most policymakers regard the labor market as stable. "There was a substantial kneejerk reaction in financial markets, including scaling back the odds of rate hikes this year. I view the latter as an improper response to this release." (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
1058 ET - Withdrawal requests for Blue Owl Capital's biggest private credit fund slowed in the latest quarter, soothing some jitters around the health of the private credit industry. Investors in the fund asked the firm to return 19% of shares outstanding in the fund in the second quarter, down from 22% in the prior quarter. Redemption requests similarly slowed for its technology-focused fund. Those trends are welcome news for Blue Owl and other private credit funds, which have been dealing with a surge in withdrawal requests lately after high-profile defaults last year triggered worries around the health of their investments. "Credit quality remained resilient," boosted by strong fundamentals and borrower health, the firm said in a July letter to shareholders. The firm said it was encouraged to see the modestly lower quarter-over-quarter tender requests, and believes the recent performance reflects has contributed to improved investor sentiment. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)
1041 ET - Galderma's second rejection in the U.S. for antiwrinkle treatment Relfydess has no impact on its regulatory submissions in other countries, notably Brazil, analysts at Bank of America say in a research note. In Brazil, the Swiss skincare specialist should be able to drive incremental growth once the product is approved, the analysts say. The U.S. decision has no impact on Galderma's guidance for 2026, they add. Still, Bank of America lowers its 2027 sales growth forecast for Galderma's neuromodulators segment to 12% from 15% previously. "From early discussions, investors consensually expect a one-year delay at this stage, consequently delaying the growth benefits of the launch in neuromodulators' key market to late 2027," the analysts say. Shares rise 1.4%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)
1038 ET - Odds of an interest rate increase by the Fed decline in futures markets as slower-than-expected job creation in June gives the central bank fewer reasons to be hawkish. Investors are pricing in 18% odds of a July hike, down from 29% yesterday, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Odds of at least one cut by year end fall to 76% from 83%. The BLS reports 57,000 new jobs in June, while economists surveyed by WSJ expected 115,000. "The combination of more tepid data on the labor market and the sharp decline in oil prices should reduce the likelihood of rate hikes from the Fed," AllianceBernstein's Eric Winograd writes. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0951 ET - The June jobs report changes the labor-market story, says Sung Won Sohn, Chief Economist at SS Economics. "The economy is not shedding jobs in a recessionary way, but the hiring engine is sputtering. Payroll growth is slower, revisions are negative, labor-force participation has fallen, leisure and hospitality is weakening, and job gains remain heavily dependent on health care and social assistance," he says. The June numbers show that this is no longer a booming labor market, Sohn say. "It is a 'low-hire, low-fire' economy with less margin for error. The Fed is now less likely to hike soon, the dollar has weakened on that expectation, and investors will increasingly ask if the cooling trend will continue." (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
0927 ET - The government says leisure and hospitality employment declined by 61,000 in June, reflecting weaker than usual seasonal hiring. That contrasts sharply with the 70,000 gain in May's report. "It looks like the World Cup hiring spree was a one-month phenomenon in May," according to Brian Bethune of the Boston College Economics department. Thus far in 2026, the BLS says employment in leisure and hospitality has shown little net change. Elsewhere in the report, employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in June with a rise of 36,000. The industry has added 172,000 jobs since a recent low in October 2025. Employment in health care continued its upward trend, with a rise of 22,000, but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
0922 ET - Slower-than-expected U.S. job creation in June supports an increase in demand for gold, Petros Pantzari, from brokerage firm Monaxa, writes. Payrolls were reported at 57,000, lower than WSJ consensus forecast of 115,000. Treasury yields and the dollar slipped on the news, while gold futures are up 2%. "Gold is moving higher because the weak U.S. jobs report has reduced the fear of another Fed rate increase," Pantzari says. He adds the data gives traders a reason to believe the Fed may stay on hold "or even move closer to rate cuts" if labor markets weaken further. That would push down yields, undermining the dollar, "both supportive for gold," Pantzari says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0855 ET - S&P futures are building onto earlier gains following weaker job creation in June. Non-farm payrolls grew by 57,000 last month,below the 115,000 economists polled by WSJ expected. May's payrolls were also revised down to 129,000 from 172,000. The jobless rate ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3%. The weaker-than-expected report could mean that the Federal Reserve may be less likely to raise rates sooner rather than later. The Fed recently adopted a more hawkish tone with regard to inflation triggered by rising energy costs, leading markets to believe a rate hike could be in the cards. S&P futures are up 26 points. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
0849 ET - Treasury yields and the dollar slide as the U.S. economy creates fewer jobs than expected in June. The BLS reports jobs growth at 57,000, lower than WSJ consensus of 115,000. May's figure is revised down to 129,000 from 172,000, and April's to 148,000 from 179,000. June's unemployment rate ticks lower to 4.2% from 4.3%. The data runs against expectations of Fed hikes that help support the dollar. Weekly jobless claims fall slightly, to 215,000 from an upwardly revised 216,000, versus expectations of 220,000. The WSJ Dollar Index is down 0.7%. The 10-year yield falls to 4.461% from 4.505% before the data. The two-year drops to 4.108% from 4.191%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0530 ET - AI earnings could start to fall short of expectations, undermining both equity prices and the capital expenditure boom, economists at Capital Economics say in a research note. The economists think equity prices may have a bit further to rise in the near term but will eventually pull back, with the S&P 500 estimated to fall to 6500 by end-2027. AI demand may continue to grow, but at a slower pace than expected, as firms likely underestimate the barriers to AI adoption, CE says. Meanwhile, AI-related revenue will likely be weighed by a decline in prices driven by increased competition and innovation. AI capital spending could slow down as a result, as hyperscalers prioritize projects with clearer near-term monetization, CE adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)