1505 ET - Treasury yields recover ground lost after disappointing labor data and end the week higher. The BLS puts June job creation at 57,000, about half as many as expected. The surprise reduces odds of Fed interest rate increases priced into fed fund futures, although at least one hike this year remains the highest probability, according to CME. Inflation expectations priced inswaps trade match the Fed's 2% target, according to LSEG. Bond markets close earlier and won't reopen until Monday. Next week will bring June services PMI and existing home sales. The 10-year yield rises 0.105 percentage point this week to 4.447%. The two-year increases 0.043 p.p. to 4.130%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1421 ET - Robinhood's launch of its own blockchain and its new offering of tokenized stocks of public companies that can trade around the clock are meant to broaden and internationalize exposure to the U.S. equity market, CEO Vlad Tenev says in a CNBC interview. "It's really about, can we actually do what we've done for stocks in the U.S., made them really easy for people to invest in, and just distribute that to the long tail of, eventually, every country in the world," Tenev says. "Everyone with a smartphone should be able to easily get U.S. stock exposure." Robinhood's stock tokens are not available in the U.S. or to U.S. customers. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1416 ET - Robinhood's launch of a larger array of perpetual futures products for traders in Europe is part of the company's strategy to be at the forefront of new financial products and services, CEO Vlad Tenev says in a CNBC interview. "We just want to be on the frontier for anything that a trader can do," Tenev says, touting the company's customer-facing app, exchange layer, and work on decentralized finance. "If you're a trader, you'll be at a disadvantage using anything other than Robinhood, and that's really the goal." (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1347 ET - Bitcoin had a tough first half of the year, dropping 35% since Jan. 1 to find a recent multi-year low of around $58,000. But bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are off to a hot start in July, jumping back up to over $61,600 after the payrolls report showed less jobs added than previously anticipated by surveyed analysts. Cryptocurrency research firm 21shares says that they are maintaining "cautious optimism" on bitcoin's prospects in the second half of 2026, although the factors that have been pressuring prices are not expected to disappear. "The number of wallets holding BTC continues to grow," says the firm in a note. "Our year-end base case is a recovery toward $100,000 rather than a breakout to new all-time highs." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1333 ET - Meta Platforms' move to consider selling cloud compute capacity directly, as reported by Bloomberg, likely doesn't represent a near-term venture for the company or signal a slowdown in investment, Mizuho says in a note. Instead, it should be understood as planning for all potential scenarios--including a "Plan B". "Infrastructure investment will deliver ROI through (1) monetizing with its own AI products or (2) finding the 'highest and best use' if that means leasing capacity," analyst Lloyd Walmsley says. "This helps show a commitment to eventually delivering ROI, one way or another. Most investors we speak to continue to struggle to see a credible path to monetizing AI investment at Meta, so we take this as a positive, adding a margin of safety to medium-term EPS." (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1318 ET - JPMorgan thinks 1 gigawatt of compute capacity could generate around $20 billion in annual revenue and multiple dollars of EPS for Meta, should it decide to launch a cloud infrastructure business. Bloomberg reported earlier this week that Meta was considering the move. But the analysts also believe it signals a lack of traction in the company's proprietary artificial-intelligence work. "We'd much prefer that Meta develop core AI products, leverage them over its base of 4B users, & require massive compute for its own inference rather than selling access to its infrastructure," the analysts say in a note. "It still suggests to us that Meta's AI product traction beyond advertising remains limited." Meta falls 4.6%.(elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1215 ET - Palantir's "main character energy" gives it an advantage in establishing high-value partnerships with customers, D.A. Davidson analysts Gil Luria and Lucky Schreiner write in a note. The company's sense of swagger means that many customers approach it directly due to word of mouth and reputation, and that Palantir can decide which partnerships will generate the most value, the analysts write. Because the company will go deep on one customer rather than providing services for a range of competitors, it's able to create more value and capture that upside through value-based pricing, they add. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1212 ET - The testy relationship between Anthropic and the Department of Defense shows the necessity of an orchestration layer on top of artificial-intelligence models, boosting the case for Palantir, D.A. Davidson analysts Gil Luria and Lucky Schreiner write in a note. Enterprises who built businesses directly on top of Anthropic's models could have seen a "catastrophic" disruption from the government limiting access, but Palantir can switch the models underlying its services without much friction, they write. "We believe this development removes the biggest perceived threat to Palantir - the notion that companies will go to Anthropic and OpenAI to solve their biggest problems," the analysts write. Palantir gains 2.5%. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1132 ET - Even with bitcoin pushing over the $60,000 mark, outflows from bitcoin ETFs are continuing. According to data from CoinGlass, net ETF outflows actually rose from the prior day yesterday, up to $296 million from $222.6 million previously. But sentiment is turning warmer for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general as 3Q begins. CoinMarketCap's "Fear and Greed Index" poked out from "extreme fear", rising to a reading of 22 out-of 100, which is in "fear" territory. "The first two days of 3Q tell a different story," says CoinMarketCap in a separate note. Bitcoin is up 2.5% to $61,592, ethereum rises 5.1% to $1,699, XRP climbs 3.1% to $1.09, and solana advances 4.3% to $80.65. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1125 ET — Shares of Tesla fell, reversing gains during premarket trading, after the electric car maker delivered more vehicles in the latest quarter and surpassed Wall Street's expectations. Tesla says it delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter, up 25% from a year earlier. Wall Street had expected 406,024 deliveries for the quarter, according to a consensus forecast based on 22 analyst estimates, which was posted on Tesla's website last week. The growth continues Tesla's recent momentum after it similarly recorded an increase in sales in the first quarter. The results also mark Tesla's first time reporting vehicle deliveries since it stopped making two of its luxury models, the Model X and Model S, in May. The company still sold its remaining inventory of those vehicles in the second quarter. The stock was recently down 6.8% at $396.23. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)
1115 ET - The dollar weakens against major currencies, including 1% versus the yen, following dismal U.S. payrolls data. The decline may ease the prospect of imminent intervention to prop up the Japanese currency, but at 161 per dollar, the yen remains a point of concern. An intervention would entail sales of dollars and other FX reserves by Japanese authorities, Capital.com's Daniela Hathorn says. Treasurys could get in the mix, but not enough to push yields much higher. "The bigger question is will intervention even work," she says. Hathorn adds that past actions didn't have a lasting impact because "fundamentals hadn't changed as exchange rates ultimately follow interest-rate differentials and capital flows." (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1113 ET — Planet Labs's agreement to launch one of its next-generation Pelican satellites aboard an Isar Aerospace Spectrum rocket highlights growing demand for European-built space infrastructure. The companies aim to complete what they say would be the first launch of a German-built satellite on a German-built rocket within 12 months, underscoring Europe's drive to expand sovereign space capabilities as governments prioritize security and resilience. For Planet, the partnership complements its planned expansion of satellite manufacturing in Berlin, while giving the company greater access to European launch capacity as it builds out its next-generation constellation.(anvee.bhutani@wsj.com)