0547 GMT - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is likely to continue to flatten, say TD Securities' rates strategists in a note. However, they reckon, short-lived steepening is possible. "Tactical steepening is possible given the extent of recent flattening," they say. "But with the market continuing to pencil in rate hikes and steepening still crowded, flattening could remain the near-term direction," they say. Having hit a multimonth low just below 25 basis points on June 24, the two- to 10-year U.S. Treasury yield spread closed at 34.6 basis points on Thursday, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0543 GMT - MAP Aktif Adiperkasa faces an earnings hit from some headwinds, CGS International analysts say in a research report. The brokerage cuts its 2027-2028 sales forecasts for the lifestyle retailer by 9%-11% to reflect its lowered 2026-2028 gross store opening assumptions to 300 a year from 380-450 previously. MAP Aktif Adiperkasa's 2026-2028 gross profit margins are also likely to narrow slightly due to the Indonesian rupiah's weakness against the U.S. dollar. The brokerage lowers the stock's target price to 750.00 rupiah from 1,010.00 rupiah, with an unchanged add rating. Shares are last at 610.00 rupiah. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0530 GMT - Investors could consider buying 10-year U.S. Treasurys on dips, TD Securities' rates strategists say in a note. Uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's policy path will likely keep 10-year U.S. Treasury yields in the 4.25%-4.66% range in the near term, they say. TD Securities doesn't expect the Fed to deliver interest-rate hikes but hike pricing could remain elevated as the Fed waits for more data, they say. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.484% on Thursday, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0517 GMT - The dominant theme across global markets next week will again likely be the evolving narrative around the Iran war and the trajectory of the still tenuous U.S.-Iran peace talks, First Abu Dhabi Bank's Simon Ballard says in a note. "The technical talks in Qatar are ongoing, with markets taking an increasingly optimistic view on a permanent ceasefire and the restoration of Strait of Hormuz shipping flows," the chief economist says. However, First Abu Dhabi Bank would caution that success is anything but guaranteed at this stage. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0427 GMT - ASB Bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hold the official cash rate at 2.25% in July. The bank's core view remains that the OCR should be normalized towards a neutral level around 3.25%, with hikes penciled in from September. But for now, U.S.-Iran developments have lowered medium-term inflation risks, and afford the RBNZ some time, ASB says in a note to clients. Still, the geopolitical backdrop is fickle, so too are the potential OCR implications, it adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0426 GMT - BNP Paribas has revised its outlook for terminal interest rates in Japan, raising it to 2.50% from the previously projected 2.00%. The firm's economist Ryutaro Kono expects the Bank of Japan to maintain a gradual tightening pace of one rate increase every four to five months. The BOJ policy rate is expected to reach 1.25% by the end of 2026 and 2.00% by end-2027, with the rate ultimately hitting the 2.50% terminal ceiling in September 2028, he says. With downward pressure on the yen expected to persist, inflation will likely continue trending above the BOJ's 2% target, he says. "The Takaichi administration is expected to maintain its stance of passively tolerating interest-rate hikes moving forward." (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0341 GMT - The dollar is expected to trade around 4.05 ringgit to 4.08 ringgit next week, with risks tilted toward further ringgit appreciation, Kenanga economists say in a note. They expect softer U.S. June inflation, helped by lower gasoline prices, to reinforce the case for the Fed to keep interest rates on hold for an extended period, prompting investors to reduce long dollar positions. Their baseline outlook assumes U.S.-Iran tensions stay contained, without disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Investors will also focus on the FOMC minutes for clues on the Fed's policy stance and whether the July meeting remains a "live meeting," they add. Kenanga expects the dollar to face resistance at 4.086 ringgit, with support at 4.061 ringgit. The dollar is 0.3% lower at 4.0660 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0257 GMT - Data centers are expected to continue to anchor Malaysia's construction growth, with momentum gradually broadening across transport, renewables, industrial parks and infrastructure, Public Investment Bank analyst Oh Boon Yeow says in a note. He expects job flows to remain comparable with the past two years', supporting further expansion in sector order books. A robust pipeline of data-center developments, public infrastructure and utility projects are expected to underpin activity, while rising material costs will likely remain manageable through inflation-linked contracts, disciplined pricing and effective cost controls, he adds. Public IB maintains an overweight rating on Malaysia's construction sector, pegging Gamuda and IJM as its top picks. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0256 GMT - Bitcoin falls in early Asian trade, down 0.3% at $61,321.44. Bitcoin is falling amid accelerating ETF outflows and weak institutional participation, K33 Research says. Meanwhile, option traders are paying some of the highest premiums for downside protection since the 2022 bear market. "When hedging becomes this expensive, it's usually a sign that pessimism is already widespread," K33 adds. Still, weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data for June could ease concerns over further rate hikes, strengthening the case for bitcoin. Investors are also watching quarter-end portfolio rebalancing, which has historically supported ETF inflows after periods when bitcoin underperforms equities, K33 says.(jason.chau@wsj.com)
0246 GMT - Chinese automakers' local retail volumes could shrink despite some recovery in domestic electric-vehicle demand in June, say Macquarie Capital's Eugene Hsiao and Calvin Ye in a note. Auto retail volume declined around 20% on year in 1H, likely due to local demand weakness. They cut their 2026 forecast for domestic retail sales to 20.2 million units, implying a 15% drop from 2025, compared with a previous estimate of 22.7 million units. Macquarie also notes margin pressure from persistently high input costs could weigh on Chinese automakers. Still, exports are set to remain strong, which Macquarie expects to surge 38% this year to 7.9 million units. Macquarie's sector pecking order is led by Geely ahead of BYD, NIO, XPeng and Li Auto. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0239 GMT - The Singapore dollar strengthens slightly against its U.S. counterpart in Asia. The weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report released overnight has pared Fed rate-hike expectations, two strategists at OCBC Group Research say in a report. This has weighed on the greenback, they write. Based on technical analysis, two-way trades are likely for now, with slight risk for "downside retracement" of the U.S. dollar against the Singapore dollar, the strategists add. The U.S. dollar is 0.1% lower at 1.2911 Singapore dollars, FactSet data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0225 GMT - Japan might be adopting new foreign-exchange intervention strategy, DBS Group Research's Philip Wee says in a commentary. The senior forex strategist notes rumors that Japan's Finance Ministry might shift to unannounced stealth currency interventions. Such interventions "could amplify volatility amid thin liquidity on today's Independence Day holiday in the U.S. bond and equity markets," Wee says. "Japan's new strategy appears to be targeted at shifting market psychology from skepticism to caution." The dollar is little changed at 161.13 yen, according to LSEG data. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)