Canadian Trade Flows Still Shaped by U.S. Policy — Market Talk

1121 ET - Canadian trade flows continue to be shaped by the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, though the broader expectation remains that trade will become less of a drag on Canadian growth than it was in 2025 as the international environment gradually stabilizes, Royal Bank of Canada's Abbey Xu and Nathan Janzen say. The country's goods-trade surplus widened to about C$4.2 billion in May from the prior month's revised C$3.4 billion, as exports rose 0.9% and imports fell 0.2%. The economists say export volumes excluding price effects fell 0.5% for the month but are still tracking a large increase in the second quarter as a whole. Import volumes edged lower as well, albeit mainly thanks to a pullback in gold imports, Xu and Janzen say. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1114 ET - Most-active gold futures are flat in morning trading, around $4,165 a troy ounce. Analysts and traders are increasingly expecting gold prices to start showing strength after trending lower since March. After finding an all-time high of $5,354.80/oz in late January, gold has tumbled, sliding 25% to a year-low of $4,008.80/oz in late June. Further rebounding is expected, says Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital Securities. "With the prospects of inflation easing in the coming months, we anticipate that gold prices will begin to firm up in the days ahead," says Cardillo - who says that his near-term price target for gold is $4,350/oz. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1025 ET - A further widening of Canada's goods-trade surplus to a four-year high isn't as good as it first looks, since exports in volume terms were essentially unchanged, says Capital Economics' Ariane Curtis. She believes the only positive is that the rise in import volumes for May suggests domestic demand is gradually improving. Curtis adds the trade data look to be consistent with the flash estimate of a modest 0.1% on-month rise in GDP for May. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1020 ET - Canada has clearly snapped out of its two-quarter GDP funk with net trade roaring back to life, in part due to higher oil prices, says Robert Kavcic, economist at BMO Capital Markets. Based on Statistics Canada's trade report for May, exports rose 0.9%--and a solid 26% from a year ago. Energy sales account for the bulk of the increase, Kavcic says. Volumes were weak in May, but nevertheless Kavcic estimates net trade will "add meaningfully" to 2Q growth, of up to 2.0 percentage points. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1014 ET - May data suggests that net trade is going to be a positive contributor for Canada GDP growth in 2Q, says Andrew Grantham, economist at CIBC Capital Markets. Exports rose 0.9% on a nominal basis in May, whereas imports fell 0.2%, leading to a C$4.24 billion trade surplus. Certainty on the trade front was dealt a blow last week with the Trump administration opting against renewing USMCA. Still, Grantham says the pact remains in place, allowing the bulk of US-bound exports to be exempt from tariffs. "This should help maintain higher export volumes relative to a year ago," Grantham says. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0944 ET - Oil futures are higher after an Iranian attack on ships trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz on the Omani side, a sign of Iran's determination to control the waterway. "Although the oil market's response to the headlines has been muted and limited to the crude markets, this event is highlighting a continued major difference between the U.S. and Iran as to who controls the strait," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. Crude futures are holding just above their pre-war levels as oil shipments continue through the strait. WTI is up 1% at $69.25 a barrel and Brent rises 1.1% to $72.80.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0937 ET - Treasurys sell off, sending yields higher, as oil prices tick up following Iran's attack on ships near Hormuz. The U.S. trade deficit widens in May, to $77.6 billion from April's revised $54.6 billion. In a week relatively light on economic indicators, markets await Fed minutes tomorrow. The WSJ Dollar Index is flat, as the greenback weakens slightly against the Japanese yen. The 10-year yield is at 4.495%, up from yesterday's settle of 4.479%. The two-year rises to 4.139% from 4.124%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0922 ET - New York Fed President John Williams reiterates his view that monetary policy is well positioned to achieve the Fed's dual mandate goals in an interview on Fox Business. Regarding the labor market, he says he sees stable, solid growth. While acknowledging inflation is still too high, he says "I do feel a little bit more positive about the near-term inflation outlook because of the energy price declines that we're going to see."(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0912 ET - Vertex Pharmaceuticals' nearly $10 billion buy of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals makes strategic sense, Evercore analysts say in a research note, even if the timing and size of the deal is a bit surprising. The deal shows Vertex continuing to diversify, adding a fifth therapeutic area to its portfolio with a new foothold in endocrinology, the analysts say. "If these assets ultimately generate anything close to Vertex's proposed $5B+ peak sales, then this is an easy win," they write. "Having said that, we don't believe that the deal needs to hit $5B+ in peak sales to be a success." Vertex shares are roughly flat in premarket trading Tuesday, while Crinetics shares double. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

0700 ET - Tech investors are reassessing their investments in artificial intelligence, despite the technology being a positive long-term driver, ING's Jan Frederik Slijkerman writes in a report. Technology companies' revenues and Ebitda are set to rise, but investors remain nervous, he says. Investors might experience a slowdown in earnings per share growth and a decline in valuation multiples as infrastructure spending leads to higher depreciation costs and reduced share buybacks, Slijkerman adds. Free cash flow is expected to be lower than in previous years as the positive effects on revenue growth could take time to materialize, he adds. "This reduces the scope for large shareholder returns in the form of share buybacks," he says. Microsoft and Alphabet shares are up 1.4% and 0.6% premarket, respectively. (najat.kantouar@wsj.com)

0652 ET - Nvidia's ability to maintain its profit margins is uncertain as tech giants build their own chips, ING's Jan Frederik Slijkerman writes in a report. "Major customers such as Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon are developing their own custom chips to help manage AI infrastructure costs (capex efficiency)," he notes. Therefore, Nvidia's pricing power could face tougher competition than in recent years, which would make it more difficult to keep its current exceptionally high margins over the long term, even as the company expands into new business lines, he says. Nvidia shares are down 1.3% premarket.(najat.kantouar@wsj.com)

0527 ET - SK Hynix's upcoming ADR listing is a test of investor appetite after the recent memory correction, says Charu Chanana, Saxo Markets chief investment strategist, in a note. Samsung Electronics fell 6.9% and SK Hynix declined 6.1% on Tuesday despite Samsung saying it expects another record quarter on robust demand. SK Hynix's ADR listing "brings a large new block of AI-linked equity supply to market just as investors are questioning whether AI infrastructure stocks have run too far," she says. Meanwhile, SK Hynix raising capital to expand capacity could potentially send memory from shortage to oversupply, the analyst says. Strong demand for SK Hynix's ADRs would indicate global investors still want more direct AI memory exposure, while weak demand would suggest AI enthusiasm is becoming more selective, she adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)