By Dow Jones Newswires Staff
Thursday's nonfarm payrolls report found the U.S. gained 57,000 jobs in June, landing outside of a range of Journal historical forecasts for the indicator. The unemployment rate of 4.2% was inside a range of Journal historical forecasts for the indicator.
For select economic indicators, including the monthly employment report, Dow Jones Newswires measures whether a reported statistic falls outside a historical range of proprietary WSJ forecasting, and if so, by how much. Those forecast ranges are based on an archive of surveys of economists the Journal has conducted over the past decade.
The gauge provides a way to measure the relative volatility of any one particular indicator, compared not just with a contemporary forecast in the days ahead of an indicator's release, but also with its track record of surprising forecasters over time.
The jobs report is closely watched by economists and investors to gauge what the Federal Reserve may do with interest rates for the rest of this year. Economists have also cautioned that positive and negative swings in payroll numbers may become more likely as the economy needs fewer job gains to keep the unemployment rate stable.
In the case of the June payrolls report, the range of WSJ forecasts relative to the actual reported number over that 10-year period was between -43,000 and +75,000. Thursday's number came in at a reading 58,000 lower than analysts' consensus forecast.
The unemployment rate fell inside the historical range of -0.2 percentage point to +0.1 percentage point for that data point. The unemployment rate of 4.2% was lower than Wall Street Journal forecasts of 4.3%.
The ranges are made up of the median of historical forecasts that came in lower than the reported number and the median of forecasts that came in higher.
Write to Dow Jones Newswires at sbcodingdesk@dowjones.com