ASML Lifts 2026 Sales Outlook to 45 Billion, Expands EUV Capacity Plans

ASML Holding NASDAQ:ASML, the Dutch producer of advanced chipmaking equipment, has raised its 2026 sales forecast for the second time this year as artificial intelligence investment continues to drive demand for the machines used to manufacture leading-edge semiconductors. The company now expects annual net sales of between 43 billion and 45 billion, significantly above the 39.3 billion average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg and above the upper end of its previous guidance. ASML reported second-quarter net sales of 9.33 billion, compared with analyst expectations of 8.85 billion, while net income reached 2.9 billion versus the 2.6 billion expected by analysts. The company also increased its full-year gross-margin forecast to as much as 56%, up from its previous estimate of as much as 53%. ASML shares rose 3.9% to 1,617 in Amsterdam after gaining as much as 7.9% earlier in the session, as investors responded to the stronger outlook and continued demand linked to AI infrastructure spending.

Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet indicated that ASML's customers are not only increasing capital expenditure but also accelerating their expansion plans, creating demand for additional systems beginning this year. ASML, the only producer of the sophisticated lithography machines needed to manufacture the most advanced semiconductors, plans to increase production capacity as chipmakers add facilities for AI processors and data-center chips. The company is targeting capacity of approximately 65 low-NA EUV machines this year, followed by a 30% increase in 2027, and it is considering another 30% expansion in 2028 to support orders scheduled for that year. Citi analysts noted that some investors may have anticipated capacity of between 90 and 100 machines in 2027 rather than the approximately 85 currently planned, but they said the broader development suggests demand is strong enough for ASML to provide detailed production guidance two years ahead. Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen added that long-term contracts containing minimum price and volume commitments suggest semiconductor supply constraints may persist for an extended period.

Demand from major chipmakers and technology companies appears to be strengthening ASML's visibility into the next several years. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. NYSE:TSM, the world's largest producer of advanced logic chips and a major ASML customer, reported a 36% increase in quarterly sales this week, while ASML customers SK Hynix, a South Korean chipmaker, and Samsung Electronics, a South Korean electronics and semiconductor company, gained as much as 12% and 6%, respectively, following the results. Intel NASDAQ:INTC, a semiconductor manufacturer, has begun using ASML's most advanced High-NA machine for chip production, which Fouquet described as evidence of the equipment's maturity, although Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. has said it will delay adopting the expensive system through 2029. ASML's capacity planning also includes Elon Musk's proposed Terafab project, which is intended to manufacture advanced chips for robotics, artificial intelligence and space-based data-center ambitions. Investors may view ASML's upgraded guidance and expansion plans as signs that AI-related semiconductor spending could remain supportive, although possible additional U.S. restrictions on equipment exports and servicing in China may create risks for a market expected to contribute approximately 20% of ASML's revenue this year.