Thermometers are the new economic forecasting tool

THERMOMETERS ARE THE NEW ECONOMIC FORECASTING TOOL

If you’re wondering what the economic outlook looks like, you could read research notes and look at projections. But a quick look at the weather app, or the thermometer in your garden, might also do the trick.

“Thermometers, it turns out, have become a leading indicator of economic growth,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, said in a note.

Various studies have linked heat and the economy. One paper focused on heatwaves, droughts and floods in the summer of 2025, for example, found that “the European economy lost some 0.3% of output," Brzeski noted.

Large parts of Europe have already seen temperatures spike this year. According to Brzeski, “the current heatwaves bring a new downside risk for the European economy: potential supply chain frictions due to low water levels in main rivers and affected infrastructure like railways and highways, but also productivity losses.”

Heatwaves, he said, have gone from weather event to “macro variable.”

Now isn’t that something to think about next time you’re sunbathing…