TAKE YOUR BEST ECB GUESS
Central bankers gathered in Portugal this week for the European Central Bank's annual forum. Investors were watching especially closely this time around as the outlook for interest rates globally is looking somewhat unusually uncertain, so clues about the policy outlook feel a bit like gold dust.
But traders might not have got what they hoped for from the conference - at least not from the ECB, whose Governing Council members kept all of their options open, according to a Barclays note.
In terms of the potential monetary policy path ahead, ECB President Christine Lagarde "refrained from giving any clear directional signal, noting only during the policy panel later in the week that risks to both growth and inflation had become more balanced," the note said.
Other Governing Council members also didn't give much more away, Barclays added.
"But our reading of comments made on the sidelines of the forum suggests that lower energy prices have reduced the urgency to tighten policy further, and that the case for a more patient ECB may be gaining ground."
Barclays still sees the possibility of a second rate hike, but notes that lower oil prices and signs that headline inflation has probably peaked could make the case for a less proactive policy position. Money markets meanwhile are still just about pricing in one more hike from the ECB this year.
It sSeemslike it might be time to consult a crystal ball, tea leaves, or just take your best guess.