WINNIPEG, Manitoba--As wet conditions across most of the Canadian Prairies wrought havoc to crops, a question has risen. How much canola will be harvested come the fall? Meanwhile, prices for canola are expected to remain within a narrow range.

Tony Tryhuk, director of futures trading for RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg, said the percentage of canola that's harvested is usually very close to the amount that was seeded.

"Normally, you get harvested acres north of 99% of planted acres. I don't know if you're going to get that this year," Tryhuk said, suggesting the amount could be less than 98%.

On June 30, Statistics Canada released its planted area report, placing those for canola in 2026-27 at a record 23.44 million acres. But the Prairies have been inundated with frequent rains, some extremely heavy. In turn, the precipitation received over the last several weeks has led to flooding in parts of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Added to that are fields completely or partially drowned out.

Tryhuk said canola yields "could take a hit" should the weather remain the same over the coming weeks. However, he said canola yields could be just fine should the Prairie weather turn warmer and drier. A lot depends on what the situation is when canola blooms.

The trader placed the November canola contract within a range of C$730 to C$750 per ton. If there's good growing conditions around the corner, he said prices could drop below C$730 and if they slip past C$720, he believes few farmers would be unwilling to sell.

But if unfavorable conditions persist, Tryhuk thinks canola could remain closer to C$750, at which time farmers will be quite happy to sell.

Tryhuk said canola will continue to be underpinned by its foreign and domestic demand. As Canadian crushers run at near capacity, he said he heard rumors of more purchases by China.

"It should be an interesting summer to watch for sure. We should see a decent-sized crop, the demand is going to be there and we're going to grow enough to satisfy," Tryhuk said.

Source: Commodity News Service Canada, news@marketsfarm.com