By Noel John
U.S. natural gas futures fell for a second straight session on Monday, as ample supplies kept pressure on the market despite forecasts for hotter weather in the coming weeks.
On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for August delivery NYMEX:NG1! on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 9.8 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $3.18 per million British thermal units. The contract is down 3.3% so far this month.
"The market thinks the heat wave is going to be short-lived and that next week temperatures will cool back to normal. With production remaining strong, that's keeping the market relatively well supplied, and that is driving prices lower," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group.
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states held at 110 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, slightly higher than May. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said last week that energy firms added a near-normal 76 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 19, keeping overall stockpiles around 5.7% above normal levels for this time of year.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
Meteorologists forecast warmer than normal temperatures nationwide through July 13, with Cooling Degree Days rising from 224 on Friday to 243 on Monday. CDDs measure energy demand to cool buildings.
Warmer than normal temperatures should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
"While we are maintaining a bullish trading stance, we can further suggest that the expected trip higher from here is likely to be characterized by a steady/choppy uptrend with a lot of backing and filling with any sharp price spikes heavily dependent upon some extreme hot temperature forecasts within the second half of July," Consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 105.8 bcfd this week to 109.2 bcfd next week. The forecasts for this week were higher than last week.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose from 17.1 bcfd in May to 17.2 bcfd so far in June. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
Dutch and British gas prices rose on Monday morning due to uncertainty over shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, even as Iran and the United States agreed to halt recent hostilities in the Gulf and Middle East.
Meanwhile, Middle East producers are pushing ahead with oil and liquefied natural gas loading despite fresh ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and renewed strikes between the U.S. and Iran in recent days, shipping data showed.
Week ended Jun 26 Forecast Week ended Jun 19 Actual Year ago Jun 26 Five-year average (2021-2025) Jun 26 | U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +74 +76 +61 +64 | U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,909 2,835 2,945 2,747 | U.S. total storage versus 5-year average +5.9% +5.7% | Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Year Prior Year Average 2025 Five-Year Average (2021-2025) | Henry Hub NYMEX:NG1! 3.28 3.39 3.64 3.62 3.79 | Title Transfer Facility (TTF) ICEENDEX:TFM1! 14.53 11.87 12.38 11.94 18.51 | Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) 15.53 15.39 13.05 12.24 18.12 | LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year Norm 30-Year Norm | U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) 3 5 3 4 5 | U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) 243 224 186 176 163 | U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) 246 229 189 180 168 | LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Last Year Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month | U.S. Supply (bcfd) | U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 110.2 110.22 110.67 107.2 100.6 | U.S. Imports from Canada 7.1 7.0 6.85 N/A 7.7 | U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | Total U.S. Supply 117.4 117.74 117.52 N/A 108.3 | U.S. Demand (bcfd) | U.S. Exports to Canada 2.3 2.2 2.2 N/A 2.3 | U.S. Exports to Mexico 7.5 7.3 7.3 N/A 6.7 | U.S. LNG Export Feedgas 17.7 17.8 17.9 14.6 12.0 | U.S. Commercial 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 5.0 | U.S. Residential 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.2 | U.S. Power Plant 39.2 41.2 44.6 44.7 39.1 | U.S. Industrial 21.7 21.6 21.6 22.3 21.8 | U.S. Plant Fuel 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.2 | U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 3.0 | U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 | Total U.S. Consumption 76.4 78.5 81.8 82.7 78.5 | Total U.S. Demand 103.9 105.8 109.2 N/A 99.5 | N/A = Not Available | U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast 2025 % of Normal Actual 2024 % of Normal Actual 2023 % of Normal Actual | Apr-Sep 85 84 76 74 83 | Jan-Jul 90 89 78 76 77 | Oct-Sep 95 94 80 77 76 | U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | Week ended June 26 Week ended June 19 2025 2024 2023 | Wind 9 11 11 11 10 | Solar 9 9 6 5 4 | Hydro 6 6 6 6 6 | Other 1 1 1 1 2 | Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 | Natural Gas 40 40 40 42 41 | Coal 16 15 18 16 17 | Nuclear 19 19 18 19 19 | SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | Hub Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Year Prior Year Average 2025 Five-Year Average (2021-2025) | Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) 3.26 3.21 3.12 3.52 3.72 | Transco Z6 New York (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) 1.51 2.50 2.34 3.53 3.56 | PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) 1.77 1.96 3.12 3.42 5.47 | Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) 2.62 2.40 2.17 2.79 2.96 | Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL) 2.78 2.79 2.76 3.23 3.60 | Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL) 2.81 2.97 2.97 6.08 5.04 | SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) 2.79 3.14 3.59 3.60 5.71 | Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) 1.51 1.81 1.75 1.15 2.88 | AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) 1.63 1.14 0.64 1.13 2.13 | Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | Hub Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Year Prior Year Average 2025 Five-Year Average (2021-2025) | New England (E-NEPLMHP-IDX) 56.50 56.50 60.18 77.61 61.79 | PJM West (E-PJWHRTP-IX) 96.67 62.72 70.06 60.23 54.47 | Mid-Columbia (Mid C) (W-MIDCP-IDX) 5.80 5.44 42.59 44.81 68.96 | Palo Verde (W-PVP-IDX) 12 23.00 38.53 34.82 59.94 | South Path-15 (SP-15) (W-SP15-IDX) 10.81 6.18 22.51 28.44 53.02 |