By Scott DiSavino
U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Tuesday on rising flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for record power demand in some parts of the country as homes and businesses crank up air conditioners to escape a brutal heat wave.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery NYMEX:NG1! on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9.4 cents, or 3.0%, to $3.275 per million British thermal units.
For the month, the front-month was down less than 1% in June after soaring about 19% in May.
Looking ahead, the premium of futures for August over September (NGQ26-U26) rose to a record high of around 8 cents per mmBtu.
High temperatures in New York, the nation's biggest city, will reach 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees Celsius) on Thursday and Friday, according to weather forecaster AccuWeather. If correct, Thursday's high would tie a record for that day set in 1966. The normal high for this time of year in the Big Apple is 84 F.
With extreme heat expected, PJM, the nation's biggest electric grid covering parts of 13 states from New Jersey to Illinois, forecast demand on July 2 would reach 166.3 gigawatts (GW), which would top the current record of 165.6 GW in 2006.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from 109.7 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual.
They projected the amount of gas in inventories would edge up to 5.9% above normal during the week ended June 26, up from 5.7% above in the previous week.
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through July 15, which should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 105.1 bcfd this week to 109.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday, while its forecast for next week was higher.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose from 17.1 bcfd in May to 17.4 bcfd so far in June with record feedgas to Cheniere Energy's NYSE:LNG 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in service and under construction in Texas. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
Week ended Jun 26 Forecast Week ended Jun 19 Actual Year ago Jun 26 Five-year average (2021-2025) Jun 26 | U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +74 +76 +61 +64 | U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,909 2,835 2,945 2,747 | U.S. total storage versus 5-year average +5.9% +5.7% | Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Year Prior Year Average 2025 Five-Year Average (2021-2025) | Henry Hub NYMEX:NG1! 3.23 3.18 3.64 3.62 3.79 | Title Transfer Facility (TTF) ICEENDEX:TFM1! 12.78 12.50 12.38 11.94 18.51 | Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) 15.82 15.53 13.05 12.24 18.12 | LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year Norm 30-Year Norm | U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) 3 3 4 4 5 | U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) 248 243 212 201 189 | U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) 251 246 216 205 194 | LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Last Year Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month | U.S. Supply (bcfd) | U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 110.4 110.7 110.9 107.5 100.6 | U.S. Imports from Canada 7.1 7.1 6.8 N/A 7.7 | U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | Total U.S. Supply 117.5 117.8 117.7 N/A 108.3 | U.S. Demand (bcfd) | U.S. Exports to Canada 2.0 2.2 2.2 N/A 2.3 | U.S. Exports to Mexico 7.4 7.2 7.3 N/A 6.7 | U.S. LNG Export Feedgas 17.6 17.9 18.0 15.4 12.0 | U.S. Commercial 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 5.0 | U.S. Residential 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.2 | U.S. Power Plant 38.5 40.5 44.8 44.2 39.1 | U.S. Industrial 21.6 21.6 21.6 22.2 21.8 | U.S. Plant Fuel 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.2 | U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 3.0 | U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 | Total U.S. Consumption 75.6 77.8 82.0 81.8 78.5 | Total U.S. Demand 102.7 105.1 109.6 N/A 99.5 | N/A = Not Available | U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast 2025 % of Normal Actual 2024 % of Normal Actual 2023 % of Normal Actual | Apr-Sep 84 84 76 74 83 | Jan-Jul 90 89 78 76 77 | Oct-Sep 94 94 80 77 76 | U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | Week ended July 3 Week ended June 26 2025 2024 2023 | Wind 15 10 11 11 10 | Solar 8 9 6 5 4 | Hydro 5 6 6 6 6 | Other 1 1 1 1 2 | Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 | Natural Gas 37 40 40 42 41 | Coal 16 16 18 16 17 | Nuclear 18 19 18 19 19 | SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | Hub Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Year Prior Year Average 2025 Five-Year Average (2021-2025) | Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) 3.33 3.26 3.12 3.52 3.72 | Transco Z6 New York (NG-CG-NY-SNL) 3.01 2.70 2.34 3.53 3.56 | PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) 1.35 1.77 3.12 3.42 5.47 | Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) 2.80 2.62 2.17 2.79 2.96 | Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL) 2.89 2.78 2.76 3.23 3.60 | Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL) 3.42 2.81 2.97 6.08 5.04 | SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) 1.23 3.79 3.59 3.60 5.71 | Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) 1.81 1.46 1.75 1.15 2.88 | AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) 1.08 1.15 0.64 1.13 2.13 | Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | Hub Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Year Prior Year Average 2025 Five-Year Average (2021-2025) | New England (E-NEPLMHP-IDX) 76.90 56.50 60.18 77.61 61.79 | PJM West (E-PJWHRTP-IX) 134.37 96.67 70.06 60.23 54.47 | Mid-Columbia (Mid C) (W-MIDCP-IDX) 5.01 5.80 42.59 44.81 68.96 | Palo Verde (W-PVP-IDX) 11.00 12.00 38.53 34.82 59.94 | South Path-15 (SP-15) (W-SP15-IDX) 10.81 6.18 22.51 28.44 53.02 |