Cocoa and coffee futures on ICE rallied on Monday, with the chocolate ingredient hitting a six-month high and arabica a five-month peak as market participants re-priced El Nino risks.
COCOA
* London cocoa ICEEUR:C2! rose 10% to £4,139 a ton at 1404 GMT, having hit its highest since early January at £4,149.
* Dealers said there are heightened concerns about the risks posed to crops from a strong El Nino. They also cited rumours that the latest cocoa pod counts in Ivory Coast are looking as poor as ever, boding ill for 2026/27 output.
* The United Nations weather agency on Friday raised its forecast for the rapid emergence of a strong El Nino in the coming months, and warned it could further revise up its forecast to a very strong El Nino.
* El Nino tends to cause excess rains in top cocoa growing region West Africa, as well as in Ecuador. The West Africa rains are then typically followed by excessively dry, hot Harmattan winds that harm the crop.
* Elsewhere, cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast were up 18.8% in the season through to July 5 versus the same period a year ago, exporters estimated.
* New York cocoa ICEUS:CC1! rose 10.7% to $5,573 a ton, having hit its highest since early January at $5,580.
COFFEE
* Arabica coffee ICEUS:KC1! rose 6.9% to $3.2190 per lb, not far off last week's five-month high of $3.2280.
* Robusta coffee ICEEUR:RC2! rose 4.9% to $3,898 a ton, not far off last week's five-month peak of $3,920.
* Prospects for top robusta grower Vietnam's 2026/27 crop are dimming because of hot, dry weather in Asia linked to El Nino.
* In top arabica grower Brazil, recent wet weather linked to El Nino slowed the harvest and raised concerns over crop quality.
* Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest reached 52% of the planted area as of July 1, below the 60% seen in the year-ago period, consultants Safras & Mercado said.
SUGAR
* Raw sugar ICEUS:SB1! rose 1.6% to 15.08 cents per lb, having gained 6% last week.
* Bucking the trend, white sugar ICEUS:SF1! fell 1% to $480.80 a ton after setting a 9-1/2-month high last Thursday.