Indian flat steel prices remained largely resilient during the week ended June 26, while rebar prices fell to their lowest level this calendar year, according to Nomura's latest weekly steel report.
Domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices eased marginally by Rs 50 per tonne week-on-week to Rs 58,200 per tonne, while rebar prices declined by Rs 850 per tonne to Rs 51,150 per tonne, reflecting continued weakness in long steel products.
Despite the recent correction, Nomura said Indian steelmakers remain well placed to deliver stronger earnings. "While Indian steel prices have witnessed a recent correction, HRC prices have remained relatively resilient, reflecting differentiated demand dynamics across product segments," the brokerage said.
It expects domestic steel companies to benefit from price hikes implemented in late FY26 and early FY27, adding that these increases are "more than sufficient to absorb any cost inflation arising from the West Asia crisis." As a result, Nomura expects Indian steel producers to report sequential improvement in EBITDA per tonne during the first quarter of FY27.
The brokerage maintained its positive stance on the sector and reiterated 'Buy' ratings on Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Lloyds Metals & Energy.
Globally, steel prices were largely stable during the week. In China, export HRC prices held steady while domestic HRC prices edged lower, whereas European HRC prices remained unchanged at elevated levels.
On raw materials, global iron ore prices eased marginally to around $92 per tonne, while imported coking coal prices remained broadly stable at $244 per tonne.
Separately, Nomura said the UK's decision to tighten steel import safeguards from July 1, including a 51% reduction in tariff-free import quotas and a 50% tariff on imports exceeding quotas, should support regional producers. "We believe these measures will support domestic players such as Tata Steel, which is one of the region's largest steelmakers," the brokerage said.
Nomura also noted that China's property market remains structurally weak despite signs of stabilisation in some Tier-1 cities, limiting the prospects of a broad-based recovery in steel demand.