Any successful takeover bid from Castlelake for easyJet will likely need to exceed 6.50 pounds a share, with around 7 pounds a more realistic level, RBC Capital Markets analyst Ruairi Cullinane says in a research note. This implies a roughly 20% upside, Cullinane adds. However, if takeover talks fail, shares could fall by a similar amount, as much of the recent rally has been driven by bid speculation, the analyst says. Longer term, value emerges only gradually as earnings improve, with the stock becoming more attractive from 2029 onward, the analyst adds. RBC cuts its stock recommendation to sector perform from outperform and raises its price target to 6 pounds from 4.05 pounds. Shares trade 1.4% lower at 574 pence. (nina.kienle@wsj.com)