The Morning Risk Report: Big Tech Has Suddenly Flipped on the AI Jobs Wipeout Scenario By David Smagalla | Dow Jones Risk Journal
Good morning. A year ago, the message from many business leaders was that AI was going to wipe out jobs. For the past month or so, tech CEOs have been striking a more optimistic tone .
Seismic shifts: In late May, OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman-who has long predicted that AI will lead to seismic shifts in the workforce-said during a conference, "We've been roughly right on technological predictions and pretty wrong on the social and economic implications."
Center of everything: Soon after, he told CNBC, "Our industry underestimated how much we're going to be able to keep people at the center of everything."
Less resources: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, who warned in May 2025 that artificial intelligence could eliminate half of entry-level jobs, a year later highlighted more positive scenarios for AI-adopting businesses: "They can do the same thing with less resources, and that leads to things like layoffs, or they can do more with the same amount of resources. But that requires creativity."
Chance to adapt: In a June essay, the executive wrote that in giving warnings of job displacement, he wanted policymakers and the private sector to have the best chance at adapting-he wasn't trying to be a "prophet of doom." (He also wrote that the possibility of "enduring job loss" remains.)
Is the sunnier outlook a move to win back customers and the public who are souring on AI's world-upending promise? Or is the role of AI in the workplace now just better understood?
Compliance
Russia hardens its response to maritime sanctions enforcement.
Russia appears to be taking steps to deter maritime sanctions enforcement by officials in Europe . Surveillance images published in the Western press on 29 June appear to show heavy machine guns and personnel with military backgrounds on a Russian LNG carrier that supplies Kaliningrad. Such a presence is unusual. Combined with recent efforts to expand Russian flag registration, this suggests Moscow is intent on deterring vessel detentions that would disrupt its oil exports. (free link)
We continue to assess that the US-Iran ceasefire will probably hold over the coming weeks. This is because both sides appear intent on avoiding a return to sustained military conflict. Several international media outlets quoted US officials on 29 June as saying that both sides have agreed to de-escalate. In a sign of this, US and Iranian officials traveled to Doha to meet mediators on 30 June. We have also seen no indications that either is preparing further attacks in the coming days.
A trucking startup aims to challenge Tesla. Now, paychecks are missing-and so is a truck.
Windrose Technology seemed poised this year to disrupt the global trucking industry: $400 million raised to build a cutting-edge electric big rig to rival Tesla's new Semi truck.
By March, the company was in such disarray that Windrose's chief executive, Wen Han, was demanding to know where one of his $285,000 trucks had gone.
Two former employees fired in January, Travis Waite and Harold Keller, refused to help locate the vehicle until Han paid them a combined $91,000 in unpaid wages and benefits. They still haven't been paid, they say, and the truck remains at large .
EU court rules Russia Today ban extends to third-party websites.
The European Union's top court ruled Thursday that the bloc's ban on broadcasting content by the Russia Today television network also applies to any website that makes the channel's videos available to the public -including noncommercial sites that operate free of charge and are funded by user donations. (free link)
The EU's Court of Justice ruled that the concept of "operator"-those prohibited from broadcasting RT content under the bloc's restrictive measures-also covers "any person responsible, directly or indirectly, for making the prohibited content available, including in the context of a non-remunerated activity or in the operation of a website financed by voluntary contributions from third parties."
Risk
Korea starts 24-hour won trading in market liberalization push.
South Korea took another step toward liberalizing its financial markets
as it introduced round-the-clock trading of its currency.
The decision was an attempt by the government to improve access to Korean markets, particularly for offshore investors. That is part of Seoul's broader push to secure developed-market status from global index provider MSCI.
Effective Monday, South Korea extended dollar-won trading to 24 hours on weekdays. Previously, the country's foreign-exchange market operated from 9 a.m. through 2 a.m. local time, a 17-hour trading session.
The EU is splintering-some say that's the only way to revive it.
The European Union was built on consensus. Nations that once bludgeoned each other found common purpose, yielding years of economic growth. Now, as that expansion has stalled, the bloc is exploring a radical idea to get its mojo back: abandoning the unity that has defined it for decades .
Some of the continent's sharpest minds, including former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, have proposed profound changes to restore economic dynamism and gain influence on the world stage. The problem is the EU's 27 countries are finding it hard to agree on how to proceed.
A sudden glut of oil threatens to weaken Iran's hand in talks.
Oil prices have fallen to prewar levels. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering fast. Gulf producers are already restarting idled wells. But one thing will take much, much longer- refilling the world's oil coffers .
Speed matters. The amount of oil in storage around the world is playing a central role in the U.S.-Iran power dynamics. The faster countries restock their buffers of crude, the weaker Iran's ability to threaten the world economy by holding the Strait of Hormuz hostage.
Chinese nuclear submarine test-launches long-range missile.
China's military said on Monday that it test-launched a long-range ballistic missile from a nuclear submarine , a rare display of advanced capabilities that set off concerns from U.S. allies across Asia and the Pacific.
The missile was fired at 12:01 p.m. Monday, carrying a simulated warhead to a designated area in the Pacific Ocean, said Senior Captain Wang Xuemeng, a spokesman for China's navy, according to state media.
What Else Matters Thales agreed to buy a 35.51% stake in Exail Technologies
from the Gorge family, valuing the company at $4.46 billion.
Italian energy company Eni is buying a 25% stake in the Black Giant Chilean lithium project from EnergyX for $225 million.
U.K. budget airline easyJet agreed in principle to a higher takeover offer from U.S. investment firm Castlelake.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to raise oil output again .
A former general whose son died in the Gaza war, is challenging Benjamin Netanyahu for prime minister.
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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.