Indonesia's current account deficit is expected to peak at 3.0% of GDP in 2Q before narrowing in 2H as energy prices ease, CIMB economists say in a note. Indonesia's May trade deficit was driven by an oil and gas shortfall and softer commodity exports, while imports remain supported by investment demand, they say. They maintain their 2026 current account deficit forecast of 1.5% of GDP. Inflation is likely to stay contained, though food prices face upside risks from weather disruptions, they reckon. Easing global oil prices and receding geopolitical tensions should help ease price pressures in 2H, they add. CIMB expects Bank Indonesia to stay on hold through end-2026, while monitoring external conditions, the rupiah and inflation before considering any policy changes. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
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Indonesia's Current Account Deficit Likely to Peak in 2Q — Market Talk
Indonesia's current account deficit is expected to peak at 3.0% of GDP in 2Q before narrowing in 2H as energy prices ease, CIMB economists say in a note. Indonesia's May trade deficit was driven by an oil and gas shortfall and softer commodity exports, while imports remain supported by investment d…