By Kit Norton
Apple's upcoming foldable smartphone could be an instant hit with consumers, but it may take time to ramp up production and shipments of the new iPhone, according to a top industry analyst.
Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities wrote in a blog post Sunday that Apple may soon unveil the foldable iPhone alongside other new models but preorders and official sales might both come much later.
Apple stock fell 0.7% in premarket trading on Monday after closing Thursday up 4.8% at $308.63.
Citing an industry survey, the analyst noted that shipments of the foldable iPhone in the second half of 2026 will be around 7 million to 8 million units, with between 500,000 and 1 million units in the third quarter.
This signals to the analyst that Apple will use the same playbook when it launched the iPhone X in 2017, and that the complexity of the technology for the phone will limit initial production.
"The foldable iPhone, given its limited 3Q26 shipments, may also not open for pre-orders or officially go on sale until 4Q26," Kuo wrote.
The analyst, however, expects demand to be robust — given the limited supply — even with a price of about $2,300 to $2,500,
"The foldable iPhone could sell out immediately after pre-orders open, with delivery lead times quickly stretching 4-6 weeks or longer and remaining there through December," Kuo wrote.
The analyst added that late 2026 and early 2027 will be when "true demand" for the new phone can be assessed.
"By then, the impact of the year-end peak season and launch buzz should be fading, while early production issues and supply constraints should have improved significantly," Kuo wrote.
Write to Kit Norton at kit.norton@barrons.com
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