By Joe Flint
Comcast's decision to split itself into two just created the next big deal magnet in an entertainment industry that is poised for yet another cycle of consolidation.
Once it breaks apart from cable giant Comcast next year, NBCUniversal, home to "Saturday Night Live" and "Minions," will go it alone in a Hollywood where streaming scale and franchises are critical for success.
While Comcast executives say the spun-off NBCUniversal entity will have the wherewithal to thrive on its own and invest in the business, much of Wall Street thinks it will become an acquisition target before long.
In his memo to NBCU staff, Comcast Co-Chief Executive Mike Cavanagh, who will run the stand-alone entertainment company after the split, suggested the corporate handcuffs are off and its wallet is open.
Cavanaugh wrote that the company will "control our own destiny, play offense and move with urgency." NBCU will have "the resources and flexibility" and be "better positioned to grow than we have ever been before," he said in the memo.
The move comes after Comcast's offer to merge NBCU with Warner Bros. Discovery was unsuccessful. Comcast shares are down nearly 30% over the past year and have more than halved over the past five years.
The NBCU spinoff is another step in a long-running realignment of Hollywood's power structure. Cable networks are largely suffering from continued cord-cutting and seen as a drag by Wall Street. That is why Comcast spun off most of its channels including MS Now (formerly MSNBC), CNBC and USA into a separate entity called Versant in January.
Google's YouTube has become an entertainment behemoth, drawing a growing share of viewing time. And subscription streaming, led by Netflix, has generally become a profitable business, but one that hasn't made up for declines in traditional TV.
Global media and entertainment deal volume in the first six months of the year rose 20% to $112 billion, according to LSEG, the highest level for that period since 2021.
Comcast's move marks the culmination of an unwinding of vertically integrated companies among the cable, telecom and media conglomerates. It is a death knell for a long-held belief among media executives that putting content and the "pipes" that delivered it under one roof would create riches for all.
Much of the Wall Street community sees the split as likely a prelude to another round of industry consolidation.
"We expect one or both Comcast units to merge with peers or competitors, " Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino wrote in a Monday report.
Wall Street analysts immediately began speculating that Netflix, which showed a desire to get bigger with its failed effort to acquire much of Warner Bros. Discovery, might make a play for the new, stand-alone NBCUniversal. Amazon, whose Prime Video continues to spend heavily on content, is seen by some as another possible buyer for NBCU assets.
Netflix and Amazon declined to comment.
NBCU's movie and television studios, which have produced hits and franchises such as "Fast & Furious" and "Law & Order," are seen as highly desirable, as are its theme parks. While its streaming service Peacock has struggled to grow as quickly as many rivals and still generally loses money, a tie-up with a rival could ensure a more solid future.
In Europe, Sky TV, which will be part of the new entertainment and media entity after the split, has a large footprint in the U.K., Ireland and Italy,
While the NBC broadcast network, television stations and Bravo cable channel are seen by some as holding less appeal for a suitor such as Netflix or Amazon, there is still value in those platforms.
NBC has national reach and an abundance of valuable sports rights including the National Football League, National Basketball Association and the Olympics. Bravo remains a life boat on the sinking ship that is the cable network business and is a key content provider to Peacock.
No deals are likely in the near future given the tax-free aspects of the spinoff. Potential bidders would have to wait two years before making an approach to avoid a tax hit.
NBCU leadership believes its combination of assets is strong enough to compete against bigger rivals such as Disney and the tech companies. Being free of Comcast could allow it to move faster in making potential acquisitions of its own.
"We have everything we need to continue to execute," Cavanagh said in an interview, adding the company will "invest in the themes around our businesses" and be more entrepreneurial.
Write to Joe Flint at Joe.Flint@wsj.com