Robinhood Markets NASDAQ:HOOD, a trading platform offering stocks, options, cryptocurrencies and event contracts, could be approaching a major change in its revenue mix as prediction markets gain traction. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani expects prediction-market revenue to surpass cryptocurrency trading revenue as early as the second quarter, which would mark the first time the newer business line has overtaken crypto. Chhugani maintained the equivalent of a buy rating on Robinhood and raised his price target to a Street-high $160 from $130, reflecting what he views as expanding opportunities in new trading markets. Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley reached a similar conclusion, with his model showing prediction-market revenue exceeding crypto revenue in the second quarter and throughout the remainder of 2026.
The shift comes as cryptocurrency trading has weakened across Robinhood, Coinbase Global NASDAQ:COIN, a cryptocurrency exchange, and Gemini Space Station NASDAQ:GEMI, a crypto platform, while investor participation in prediction markets has increased. Bitcoin's decline to levels last seen in 2024 has weighed on crypto activity, while the soccer World Cup provided a major catalyst for event-contract trading. Chhugani acknowledged that activity could ease following the end of the tournament, but suggested the market may be overlooking a broader shift in how investors trade. He expects Robinhood's prediction-market revenue to reach $1.7 billion by 2028, representing a 64% increase from 2026, supported by the company's expanding partnership with Rothera, a prediction-market startup formed as a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, with Miami International Holdings retaining a small stake.
Bernstein estimates that prediction markets, perpetual futures and Robinhood Chain could contribute 18% of Robinhood's projected 2027 revenue and 23% of its projected 2028 revenue, potentially making these newer products increasingly important to the company's growth. Needham analyst John Todaro also raised his Robinhood price target to $123 from $97 while maintaining a buy rating, citing continued strength across equities, options and event contracts, alongside a rebound in cryptocurrency activity. Robinhood is expected to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 29, with analysts forecasting adjusted profit growth of about 4% from a year earlier and a 28% increase in revenue. The stock rose 7.1% on Tuesday but remained down roughly 6% for the year, compared with declines of about 22% for Coinbase and 52% for Gemini.