By Al Root

Rivian stock soared again on Monday after J.P. Morgan boosted its price target for the EV maker's shares.

The problem: Rivian's recent hot streak has taken the stock beyond what J.P. Morgan and the rest of Wall Street think it is actually worth.

Shares of the electric vehicle maker rose 8.1% to $20.14, while the S&P 500 added 0.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3%.

The move came after analyst Rajat Gupta raised his price target to $15 per share from $9 per share, following Rivian's recent delivery report. Last week, the electric-vehicle maker said it sold 12,194 cars in the second quarter, surpassing Wall Street estimates for closer to 11,000 cars.

"We are now forecasting 2026 deliveries of about 68,100 versus about 64,900 units prior, while leaving our 2027 estimate largely unchanged at about 146,000 units," Gupta wrote.

The price target change reflected higher deliveries and "ongoing strides" in autonomous driving technology. Still, Gupta kept his Sell rating on the stock.

Shares, however, are still well above his price target. The average analyst price target is about $18.40, also below where the stock is trading.

Investors seem very optimistic about the company's new lower-priced EVs and the R2 platform, which has just started shipping. The R2 family of vehicles is very important. Rivian's R1T pickup truck and R1S SUV often cost more than $80,000, and the market for cars that expensive is small. Eventually, R2 models will start at about $45,000.

That optimism has shares up about 30% over the past three months. It's been a volatile year for the stock, which was north of $20 early in 2026. That still left the stock far below a record high of almost $180 a share, reached shortly after the company's 2021 initial public offering.

EV optimism was much higher back then. In 2022, shortly after the IPO, Wall Street expected Rivian to sell almost 400,000 cars in 2026. That number is likely to be less than 70,000.

Americans haven't warmed to EVs as much as the rest of the world has. EV penetration of new car sales is roughly three times higher in Europe and five or six times higher in China. The loss of the federal $7,500 EV purchase tax credit in the U.S. last year hasn't helped.

Mass-market car companies typically need to sell about 400,000 cars to turn a profit. Wall Street projects profit for Rivian in 2030, when unit sales hit about 427,000 vehicles.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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