Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA may be entering a steadier phase in its core car business, even as investors continue to focus on Elon Musk's bigger artificial intelligence ambitions. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate Tesla delivered around 396,466 vehicles worldwide in the latest quarter, which would represent roughly 3% growth from the same period last year. That would mark an improvement from a difficult period when Tesla faced backlash tied to Musk's role in the Trump administration, but it would still sit below the company's stronger quarters in recent years, when deliveries nearly reached 500,000 vehicles. Investors may now be watching whether Tesla can keep its vehicle sales moving higher while the company spends heavily on AI, robotics, and autonomous driving.
Tesla's car business remains important because Musk has estimated capital expenditures this year will exceed $25 billion, roughly three times last year's level. Those investments are expected to support factory expansion, Optimus humanoid robot production, AI initiatives, and the rollout of autonomous Cybercabs. Many of these projects could still be years away from generating revenue, which makes the stability of Tesla's vehicle business an important investor focus. Gene Munster, managing partner and co-founder at Deepwater Asset Management, said investors could remain satisfied as long as deliveries continue to inch higher, especially as attention shifts toward Full Self-Driving software subscriptions and Tesla's slow-growing robotaxi effort.
Regional momentum could offer some support for the stock narrative. Tesla's sales in Europe jumped 57% in the first five months of 2026, helped by Germany's new incentive program for zero-emission vehicles, while preliminary China Passenger Car Association data showed Tesla China May deliveries rose 39.4% year over year. Analysts at TD Cowen said a strong June finish could lead to a delivery beat and provide a near-term sentiment boost after Tesla shares pulled back, with the stock down about 6.5% this year through Tuesday's close. Still, with limited new updates on Tesla's autonomy, AI, and robotics projects, a possible SpaceX merger may increasingly shape investor expectations, with Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois suggesting Tesla shares may soon become SpaceX trackers.