By Al Root
Tesla is set to report deliveries over a period that included a war, soaring oil prices, and the ongoing effects of U.S. electric-vehicle policy changes.
Shares of the EV maker have been very strong heading into the report, showing that investors believe things went well. Still, delivery estimates are all over the place, so brace for volatility in the stock.
On Thursday morning, Tesla is set to report second-quarter deliveries. Wall Street expects about 409,000 cars sold, according to FactSet. Estimates aggregated by Bloomberg average closer to 400,000. Tesla's company-compiled consensus, published on its website, is about 406,000 cars. Prominent Tesla forecaster Troy Teslike projects 466,000 cars sold. Future Fund Active ETF co-founder Gary Black believes Tesla sold 420,000 cars in the second quarter.
That's a wide range of forecasts. All of the numbers indicate growth, though. Tesla sold about 384,000 cars in the second quarter of 2025.
A positive result would be the second consecutive quarter of gains. Tesla hasn't grown year-over-year deliveries for two consecutive quarters since 2024. Growth has been a struggle. Annual deliveries peaked in 2023 at about 1.8 million cars, then fell in 2024 and 2025. Tesla is expected to eke out some growth in 2026, selling about 1.7 million cars.
There have been several reasons for the slowdown in growth. Tesla decided against introducing an all-new, lower-priced EV, instead opting to develop the Cybercab for its robo-taxi business. And all electric-vehicle makers lost the $7,500 federal EV purchase tax credit in September, which made EVs less affordable for American car buyers.
Offsetting some of the headwinds in the second quarter was the rise in gasoline costs. Benchmark prices reached $4.60 a gallon in May, up about $1.60 after the war in Iran disrupted global oil supplies.
Investors seemed to have caught on that the second quarter was good for EVs. Coming into Wednesday trading, Tesla stock was up 10.8% for the week after back-to-back gains on Monday and Tuesday.
Gains likely mean Tesla will need to report deliveries in the range of 420,000 cars to keep momentum high. A number like 466,000, which is so far ahead of the analysts' consensus, would likely give shares another boost.
Tesla stock was down 0.4% in premarket trading on Wednesday at $418.77, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were both down about 0.2%.
Coming into the day, Tesla stock was down about 6% this year. EV deliveries haven't been the problem. Instead, investors are waiting for progress on AI applications such as robo-taxis and robots.
Tesla launched a robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, about a year ago. Today, it operates in a few cities but is not generating significant sales or earnings. Investors would also like to see the latest version of Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus.
Robo-taxis and robots might be the future, but EVs generate significant revenue, and investors would like to see a strong number for second-quarter deliveries.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
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