By Shritama Bose
The world's top venue for trading in equity options by volume is treading carefully with its own listing plans. India's National Stock Exchange may seek a $52 billion market capitalisation in its Mumbai initial public offering. After a decade of delays to its debut, accepting a valuation discount to rival BSE NSE:BSE, formerly Bombay Stock Exchange, is a prudent hedge against regulators tightening rules to curb retail losses and their push to loosen the bourse's dominance.
Founded in 1992, NSE executes equity options contracts worth 142 trillion rupees ($1.5 trillion) in turnover annually, thanks to the rapid uptake of trading by retail investors following the Covid pandemic. NSE controls three-fourths of that lucrative trade. A listing will also yield a windfall for its long-time backers like Temasek and State Bank of India NSE:SBIN.
They and CEO Ashishkumar Chauhan, who took the role in 2022 after 10 years leading BSE, all appear determined to ensure a deal is done. Assume NSE's earnings of 103 billion rupees increase 34% for the year to the end of March - the same pace of earnings growth Visible Alpha estimates for BSE - and the $52 billion market capitalisation works out to 36 times earnings, compared to BSE's 49 times multiple.
Both exchanges are exposed to a potential plunge in trading volumes, with each generating roughly 60% of its top line from derivatives. The official crackdown, which last year temporarily banned high frequency trader Jane Street, also saw authorities increase minimum contract sizes, implement a ban on lending to high-frequency traders and impose higher taxes on derivatives transactions. If retail investors' chunky losses continue, more restrictions could follow.
NSE's sheer outsize influence is seen as a problem too. Its market share in options trading has tumbled to 75% from 97% two years ago, when the regulator began tightening control over the number and frequency of contracts the exchanges can offer. As a result, NSE's bottom line fell 16% in the most recent financial year even as BSE's grew 88%. Another reason for Chauhan to accept a discount is simply that BSE's scarcity premium will disappear. All that makes selling cheap an imperative more than an option.
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CONTEXT NEWS
India's National Stock Exchange will sell up to 149 million shares, 6% of its total outstanding, in a Mumbai initial public offering, the bourse said in a draft prospectus filed on June 17.
State Bank of India, a Morgan Stanley affiliate, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Temasek are among existing shareholders who will offer shares in the issue.
A record 20 bookrunning lead managers are advising the issue, led by Kotak Mahindra and JM Financial.