Anand Rathi's research report on Jubilant Ingrevia
Our plant visit to JUBLINGR's Bharuch site reinforces conviction. FY27 is shaping up as the earnings inflection year, with management guiding EBITDA at the upper end of Rs7.5-8.0bn (vs ~Rs6.0bn in FY26), implying ~Rs7.6bn operating EBITDA vs our ~Rs7.3bn estimate. The key overhang on the project also appears to ease, with the innovator executing US$966m of cash actions (Fig 7) against its US$1bn 2026 deleveraging target, alleviating bankruptcy concerns. The Agro CDMO plant is commissioned and producing; while near-term offtake visibility remains limited due to weak agri demand and input cost pressures, EBITDA is ring-fenced under a 5-year take-or-pay structure. Beyond the agro contract, Jubilant's CDMO pipeline comprises 100+ molecules including 20 confirmed opportunities with ~Rs15bn revenue potential, while Nutrition mix improvement and Acetic Acid price recovery (~$300/ton to ~$450/ton) provide incremental tailwinds.
Outlook
Underpinned by 32% earnings CAGR (FY26-28e) with Specialty Chemicals and NHS contributing >85% of incremental EBITDA (CDMO revenue scaling to ~Rs12bn by FY28), we maintain BUY with SOTP-based TP of Rs975.
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Jubilant Ingrevia - 0207026 - anand